Bob Carter sent me a link to the following interesting article and profile on Nassim Taleb. Taleb is a statistician with practical risk experience. We’ve talked endlessly at Climate Audit about weird and inappropriate statistical methods, with frequent mentions of Mandelbrot, fractals and odd distributions. So does Taleb. In a financial context, but Mandelbrot sought […]
The U.S. financial crisis should be on everyone’s mind. It’s a serious situation. A private investor simply can’t hold money market paper right now. So added to the mortgage mess is a liquidity crisis that’s never happened since the run on banks in the Depression. So you can’t do nothing. The liquidity situation has to […]
In my last post, I observed an interesting bimodality which almost certainly appears to originate in Mann’s pick two procedure on low-correlation tree ring networks. Some readers may recall the interesting bimodal distribution that we reported in MM 2005 (GRL); the introduction of bimodality into a distribution seems like a sure sign of a picking […]
Do not post anything other than programming comments. Absolutely no piling on please.
I’ve adopted a graphic from the R-gallery to better illustrate the issues that we’re working on with the Mann proxy correlations. I think that this should help. Figure 1. Scatter plot of calculated gridcell correlations to Mann SI correlations, color coded by “proxy” class, together with marginal histograms. The dotted red lines show r=0.14, a […]
On September 15, 2008, Anthony DePalma of the New York Times wrote an article about the Mohonk Lakes USHCN weather station titled Weather History Offers Insight Into Global Warming. This article claimed, in part, that the average annual temperature has risen 2.7 degrees in 112 years at this station. What struck me about the article […]
Update Sep 24 – I suggest that you start with a later post here. The purpose of working through frustrating details of Mannian lat-longs and so on was to start testing the assertion that the network contained 484 “significant” proxies and that this meant something. As so often, there’s more to this than meets the […]
On July 2, I started this popular series of threads as follows: For anyone who’s betting that 2008 meltback will exceed 2007 meltback, I think that you’ll be able to pretty much know where you stand by the end of this week and your chances are not looking good right now based on this week’s […]
Today’s Mannian mystery takes us to Kenya Tanzania, not to Kilimanjaro itself, but to the great plains, still home to prides of lions, herds of wildebeest and giraffes.
Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. The SI for MBH (and Mann et al 2007) had incorrect geographic locations for numerous proxies. The same error is repeated in Mann et al 2008, a defect encountered by Jeff Id and myself in trying to replicate reported correlations to gridcell temperatures. Nearly 100 […]
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