Author Archives: RomanM

Polar Bears, Inadequate data and Statistical Lipstick

A recent paper Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy by JEFFREY A. HARVEY and 13 others has been creating somewhat of a stir in the blogosphere. The paper’s abstract purports to achieve the following: Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every […]

Data Coverage in Cowtan and Way

As I was reading section 3 (Global temperature reconstruction) of the Cowtan and Way paper, I came across this text: The HadCRUT4 map series was therefore renormalised to match the UAH baseline period of 1981-2010. For each map cell and each month of the year, the mean value of that cell during the baseline period […]

UnderCooked Statistics

Yet another propaganda essay masquerading as a scientific paper has been published (SI here) in the journal, Environmental Research Letters.   The latest entry, Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature, written by a team of activist bloggers led by John Cook of the antithetically named Skeptical Science blog,  attempts to further […]

Marcott Monte Carlo

So far, the focus of the discussion of the Marcott et al paper has been on the manipulation of core dates and their effect on the uptick at the recent end of the reconstruction. Apologists such as “Racehorse” Nick have been treating the earlier portion as a given. The reconstruction shows that mean global temperature […]

Screening Proxies: Is It Just a Lot of Noise?

There has been a great deal of discussion on a recent CA thread on the efficacy of screening proxies for use in reconstructions by selecting on the size of the correlation between the proxy and the temperature during the calibration time period. During the discussion I asked Nick Stokes the following questions in a comment: […]

RCS – One Size Fits All

In examining the Briffa Yamal chronology, there has been a lot of emphasis (IMHO, correctly) placed on both the cherry-picking and the low core counts of the proxies which extend into recent times. However, the chronology also depends on the various methods used to adjust for various known biological effects and on the choices for […]

The Lodgepole Pine: A Case Study

Every year, the Statistical Society of Canada has a case study competition for statistics students in Canada. The problem and the data are posted about six months before the annual meeting. Teams of students analyze the problem and then present their results at a poster session at the meetings. One of the two topics for […]

NASA: Sea Level Update

Yesterday, at 2:07 PM CA time (4:07 PM EDT), Rob Spooner posted the following comment in the Unthreaded n+2 thread: I’ve been asked to move a comment to this thread (or unthread), so here it is. I have run into a small problem with some NASA methodology. Looking at and just eyeballing the […]

NAS Report on Data and Methods Disclosure

Jeff Id on the Air Vent has written a post pointing out the recent publication online of a report by the Committee on Ensuring the Utility and Integrity of Research Data in a Digital Age from the National Academy of Sciences: Ensuring the Integrity, Accessibility, and Stewardship of Research Data in the Digital Age. I […]

Rejected … by RC!

I have been rejected at RealClimate! My first rejection! I have not posted there in about two years although I have occasionally read some of their consensus defences when they were relevant to what I have been looking at. They have been running a Steig Corrigendum thread concurrent with ours and I have followed it […]