Principal components do not necessarily have an orientation. However, when you are making principal components from networks of tree ring widths, it’s a good idea to try to think about physical interpretations. Here’s a funny example where the Euro Hockey Team has lost its way. They observe the following: for the proxy principal components in […]
Readers of this blog are familiar with the Yamal subsitution. Briefly, Briffa et al 1995 reported in Nature that 1032 was the coldest year of the millennium based on no more than 3 poorly dated and short cores in the 11th century. Subsequently new cores were dated to the 11th century by Schweingruber, resulting in […]
Here is the paper from MITRIE on climate reconstructions M. N. Juckes, M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa, J. Esper, G. C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, S. L. Weber, E. Zorita, Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation, Climate of the Past Discussions, 2, 1001-1049, 2006 There has been considerable recent interest in paleoclimate […]
Update: the problem seems to be a little different than initially advertised and the server people have re-described the reason for the shutdown. The problem is due to the number of bytes served; it’s not due to a DOS attack. We didn’t get a 1-2 million hit spike after all. The problem is that we’re […]
Willis writes: A couple of things. First, I’ve digitized all of the Hegerl proxy data, and placed it here. I sampled it at ~three year intervals, and interpolated the actual years. Second, I took a look at their reconstruction method. They say: The first step of the reconstruction technique is to scale the individual proxy […]
The other day we discussed missing data in the Northern Indian Ocean, where the main best tracks archive showed storm track data up to the mid-1970s but lacked wind speed estimates, with a sharp decline in storm track occurrences in the 1970s. In his comment on Webster, Curry et al, William Gray observed that there […]
The reconstruction in Hegerl et al (J Clim) was previously used in Hegerl et al (Nature) which provided some information on the number of series and some other particulars, but did not identify the series. In order to show how farcical the Hockey Team claims of “independence” were, I made guesses last spring about the […]
The Hegerl et al 2006 climate reconstruction is finally online here . I’m going to go through the proxies individually before talking about method. Obviously the first one to look for is Mann’s North American PC1. Although they say that they’ve “moved on”, Mann’s PC1 was used in Osborn and Briffa 2006 and was one […]
On Aug 26, 2006, Judith Curry made the following comment about cyclone data, mentioning that re-processing had been done back to 1983: The tropical cyclone data really is rather a mess, the NATL is definitely the most reliable, so I am focusing on that data set (with all its warts) until the global satellite data […]
I’m looking at some of the details of the Webster, Curry et al 2005 claim that the proportion of intense hurricanes has increased. While I was doing so, I noticed an interesting issue in the Northern Indian Ocean tropical storm counts. Here is an excerpt from Webster et al 2005 Figure showing the count of […]
Climate Audit 