Category Archives: MBH98

Articles relating to the Mann, Bradley and Hughes 1998 reconstruction of past climate

Reply to von Storch and Zorita

As I’ve mentioned before, the Von Storch and Zorita Comment was accepted by GRL and will appear soon. Von Storch has been very courteous to us both in public and private and it has been a pleasant exercise replying to their Comment (as opposed to wading through the bile of Ammann and Wahl.) They are […]

Graybill and Funkhouser [1993] on Bristlecones

I have recently located a copy of Graybill and Funkhouser [1993], Dendroclimatic Reconstructions during the past millennium in the southern Sierra Nevada and Owens Valley, California, which has been very hard to find. This appears to be Graybill’s last publication before he died. A detailed excerpt follows. Some key quotes: Unfortunately the chronologies from the […]

Huybers #2: Re-Scaling

Huybers’ second and more interesting (to me) issue pertains to the benchmarking of the RE statistic.I’m going to start in the middle of this issue. If I start with the history e.g. defining the RE statistic and showing its history (and I just tried), it’s hard to get to the punch line. So what I’m […]

Reply to Huybers #1

An article by Peter Huybers has been accepted at GRL together with our Reply. I’m going to give a preview of this. This will take a few posts.

The Tort of Conversion

Mann’s answer to the Barton Committee included a bizarre tirade about title to his computer code, which made me ruminate about the tort of conversion. It’s hard to imagine that Mann has done something that is probably unprecedented in the entire history of responses to a congressional committee – the answer to the congressional committee […]

Mann and Rutherford [2002]: the CE Statistic

Barton’s question 7d asked MBH about other verification statistics. We’ve discussed their withholding of the R2 statistic here, here and here. In our GRL article, we also pointed out that their 15th century reconstruction also failed the CE statistic, another verification statistic used in dendroclimatic studies [Cook et al, 1994]. Mann’s retort was that climatologists […]

Bristlecone dC13

I’ve recently run across an article on changing water use efficiency in bristlecones, which pretty much put the nail in the coffin on any lingering ideas that 20th century bristlecone ring widths might be a temperature proxy. Tang et al. [1999], "The dC13 of tree rings in full-bark and strip-bark bristlecone pines in the White […]

More on MBH98 Cross-Validation R2

I have previously discussed here and here Mann’s answer to the following question from the House Committee: "7 c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?" Mann stated: "My colleagues and I did not rely on this statistic in […]

Lambert, Lott and Mann

Readers of this blog may have noticed some chaffing back and forth between me and Tim Lambert. Anyone that’s followed the chaffing may have noticed that Lambert has spent a lot of time criticizing studies by John Lott on guns on statistical grounds. On a personal basis, I dislike/hate guns and cannot imagine why anyone […]

Roll Over, Preisendorfer

I think that Preisendorfer would roll over in his grave if he saw how Ammann, Schmidt and Mann were bastardizing his Rule N.