If anyone feels like sticking needles in their eyes, I’d appreciate assistance in trying to figure out Mannian verification statistics. Even when Mann posts up his code, replication is never easy since they never bothered to ensure that the frigging code works. Or maybe they checked to see that it didn’t work. UC’s first post […]
Julien Emile-Geay from Judith Curry’s university – who, together with Kim Cobb, is teaching a course on the Hockey Stick – has joined our debate with a forceful criticism of Craig Loehle’s recent paper. While Emile-Geay seems to be a lively young man with some very cordial comments about CA here and his comments are […]
Von Storch et al 2004 advocated using climate models to generate pseudoproxies to test the properties of proposed multivariate methods. Hardly unreasonable. I might argue that these are long-winded ways of generating proxy series with certain kinds of temporal and spatial covariance structures, but there’s much to be said for testing methods on some standard […]
By Stephen McIntyre
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Posted in Multivariate, RegEM
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Also tagged mixed effects, multivariate, nlme, overfitting, pseudoproxy, random effects, ridge, stone, stone and brooks, storch, von storch, zorita
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This post got deleted in the server crash. I typically post up from written text, but usually do a final edit as I input onto the blog, so the present note will probably differ a little from what I posted up yesterday, but probably not materially. Mann did not present anything germane that had not […]
Back to reporting on our presentation to the NAS panel, after which I’ll report on Mann. We presented last in the day, immediately following von Storch. Hughes and Mann presented on Friday morning. We gave them a long written presentation, and touched the high points in our PPT, also providing them with a CD of […]
I’m posting up our July 2005 review of Wahl and Ammann. The recently accepted version is here. I’m posting this up for a variety of reasons. Mann relied heavily on Wahl and Ammann in his NAS panel testimony (which wasn’t even online as accepted last week) and so it’s hard to finish off the discussion […]
Mann cited Wahl and Ammann’s recently released paper at NAS (which was not available to us in time for the NAS panel, although I’d seen and reviewed an earlier draft.) After reading it, Per said that he thought that the reviewers had done a lousy job. Now I was only a reviewer for the first […]
For the first time, a member of the Hockey Team (Ammann and Wahl) has admitted that the verification r2 for the early steps of MBH98 are catastrophic. Results confirm our calculations – as we predicted. They have not explained the justification for issuing a press release that all our claims were "unfounded" and UCAR has […]
I’ve just noticed at the UCAR website that Ammann and Wahl now say that their CC re-submission was “provisionally accepted” on Dec 12. I have no information on what a "provisional acceptance" means, but it’s certainly a coincidence that the “provisional acceptance” occurred only 3 days after GRL agreed to send their previously rejected GRL […]
Continued from Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 OK, back to Ammann at AGU, his answer to the cross-validation R2 and my offer to him after our lunch. I think that asking for the cross-validation R2 was a good one-bite question at several different levels. First, it’s objective and any prevarications are noticeable to the […]
Climate Audit 