Category Archives: Reports

NAS News and Schedule

Here’s the appearance schedule. There are 10 presentations. Hughes and Mann each get a separate speaking slot while Ross and I are combined into one. It’s a pretty blue-chip set of speakers. We get the last speaking spot on Thursday at the end of a long day, just before cocktails. Hughes and Mann get to […]

Letter to NAS on Panel Composition and Balance

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has presumably been criticized in the past for the composition of panels (from the evidence of the mere existence of the 1997 law on committee balance and composition). This law and resulting policies provide for a comment period on proposed committees. Ross and I have exercised our rights under […]

National Academies Panel on Temperature Reconstruction

The National Research Council of the National Academies has empanelled a blue-chip committee to study "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 1,000-2,000 Years". The chairman will be Gerald North. The request came from the House Science Committee – I presume that they are trying to assert possession over this piece of turf. 8-10 speakers are […]

11 Ammann Mentions in Mann's Barton Letter

As I was writing up my note on Ammann at AGU, I re-read Mann’s reply to Barton, which mentions "ammann" no fewer than 11 times, usually as an "independent" scientist confirming his results. I’ve collected the mentions here, which make for some merry reading. Then I’ll discuss exactly how "independent" Caspar Michael Ammann (should we […]

MBH98 and Correlation

Continued from Part 1, Part 2 One more bit of review before we get to Ammann’s answer. As an excuse for not answering the request of the House Energy and Commerce Committee about the R2 statistic, Mann told them that his “colleagues and [himself] did not rely on this statistic” in the following terms: The […]

Replication Policy

We get considerable criticism from paleoclimate scientists that complying with requests for data and methods sufficient to permit replication is much too onerous and distracts them from "real work". However, the problem is not our request, but that any request should be necessary in the first place. In my opinion, a replication package should have […]

20 Wise Men Write Barton

One of the reasons for my recent focus on Thompson is that he was one of the 20 "wise" [my term] men (and women) who wrote here to the Barton Committee deeply concerned about your approach and expressed their "hope that as a community, we can help your committee shape public policy in the light […]

Science Editorial #2

It has been brought to my attention that Science has formal policies on data archiving. The author of the email, who requested confidentiality, argued that this disproved my statement: Having acknowledged that, the underlying issue is that Science does not seem to either have policies that require authors to archive data or administration practices that […]

Science Editorial

Science has recently weighed in with an editorial in which the editor of Science, Donald Kennedy, stated that he is “outraged” by the Barton Committee inquiring into processes for due diligence and disclosure in connection with science being applied for large-scale public policy. I thought that people might be interested in an account of my […]

More on MBH98 Cross-Validation R2

I have previously discussed here and here Mann’s answer to the following question from the House Committee: "7 c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?" Mann stated: "My colleagues and I did not rely on this statistic in […]