Trying to post at realclimate

I attempted to post a comment up at realclimate in response to the following:

#Re: response to #63:
"And of course once the data is published, others are free to reinterpret it and/or use it in another way."
It seems that one good step would be for journals to require public archiving of all primary data & methods as a condition of publication. Would you support this?
Comment by Armand MacMurray “¢’‚¬? 2 Oct 2005 @ 4:33 am

I sent in the following comment using my own name and email address:

Re #65: There is a great deal of unarchived data pertaining to multiproxy studies e.g. a list of the 387 sites in Briffa et al [2001] (which may or may not be archived); measurement data for many sites used in Esper et al [2002]; data versions used in Mann and Jones [2003]; methods of Mann and Jones [2003]; data as used in Crowley and Lowery [2000] or data citations for the versions used; measurement data for many Jacoby sites studied in the last 10 years except Mongolia; sample data for Thompson’s ice cores, etc. etc. Sometimes data is archived in password protected sites like SO&P. Will you join in seeking to improve standards of data archiving implemented by journals such as Nature and Science and in studies funded by NSF?

This was submitted early this morning and was not posted today, although their inbox has been cleared and many comments posted. Indeed, Gavin Schmidt added this comment to post #65, which was not in it this morning:

[Response: Yes. In paleoclimate research, I think that once a time series is published, it should be made available at one of the standard archives. This almost always happens with new papers now, though there are a few exceptions, mostly from older papers that were published prior to universal web access. The methods description just needs to be enough so that some else can work out what was done. …. – gavin]

You wonder how they can say these things with a straight face.

As to the censorship of my comment, they really are pathetic. Gavin Schmidt has posted here in the past and is welcome to post here in the future.

UCAR, Ammann and Wahl and GRL

Several years ago, there was a great controversy at the journal Climate Research regarding the publication of an article by Soon and Baliunas. Three editors, including Hans von Storch, felt that the peer review leading to acceptance of this article was flawed and resigned in protest. I want to compare some of these events to some events in progress at GRL, where the most powerful climate research corporation in the U.S. appears to intervened at GRL, causing them to abandon their usual procedures, after an article by one of its scientists was rejected.

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) is a corporation carrying out climate research with $200 million in annual revenue. It is a powerful force in the climate research industry. The Technical Support Unit for the IPCC Working Group 1, the working group which authored IPCC TAR featuring the hockey stick graph, is housed at UCAR. In fact the IPCC Working Group 1 website goes so far as to include UCAR as part of its name http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/

Given the prominence of the hockey stick in IPCC TAR and the close connections between UCAR and IPCC Working Group 1, it is perhaps no coincidence that the most vociferous counterattack on certain hockeystick critics (other than Mann himself) have been sponsored by UCAR.

On May 11, 2005, on the day that Ross McKitrick and I were presenting in Washington, UCAR issued a press release announcing that one of its scientists, Caspar Ammann ( a former student of Raymond Bradley) and one of its former post-doc fellows, Eugene Wahl, had supposedly demonstrated that our criticisms of the hockey stick were "unfounded". The press release announced that they had submitted articles to Climatic Change and GRL.

Unfortunately for UCAR, on June 6, 2005, GRL rejected the submission by Wahl and Ammann. This was never announced. The rejection by GRL was not mentioned in two letters to the House Energy and Commerce Committee by Mann and the European Geophysical Union, which cited this press release.

The Comment by Ammann and Wahl was one of four Comments submitted to GRL on our work. Two Comments, one by von Storch and Zorita and one by Huybers, were accepted and, together with our Replies, will be published in the near future. One other Comment, by David Ritson, was rejected.

I can’t imagine that UCAR was very happy about the rejection of Ammann and Wahl, especially with the press release hanging out there. There have been some strange events. In late August, the editor-in-chief of GRL, James Famiglietti, told a reporter at ES&T that he had taken over the Comment file pertaining to our article.

In the last week, a couple of curious events occurred. On Sep. 27, 2005, Famiglietti told us that the rejected Ritson Comment had now been accepted. In breach of AGU policies which require that both a Comment and Reply be sent together for refereeing, Famiglietti had sent the previously rejected Ritson Comment out without a Reply; after getting the Comment accepted, Famiglietti invited us to reply.

On Sept. 29, 2005, someone inquired at realclimate.org about the status of the Ammann submissions, which had gone silent since the May 11, 2005 press release. Mann replied:

[Response: Rumour has it that both manuscripts are pending final acceptance from the respective journals. – mike]

On Oct. 1, 2005, one of our posters noticed that the UCAR webpage for the Ammann and Wahl submission to GRL had been changed – it now showed that the article had been resubmitted on Sept. 25, 2005. So the article had made remarkable progress through the system by Sept. 29, 2005, when Mann reported that it was "pending final acceptance". We have still not seen a copy of the re-submission.

I’m providing here some details of the chronology. The tone that I’m trying to capture (and I may have to edit some more) is irony. Think back to the shrieking by climate scientists about the peer review of Soon and Baliunas. Now let’s see how many climate scientists speak up about Famiglietti directly taking over editorship, rescuing of the UCAR submission from the garbage can saving face for them and completely breaking AGU policies on Comments in order to expedite acceptance of the previously rejected Comments. Continue reading

Crichton at Senate EPW Committee

Michael Crichton made very intelligent testimony to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee here. He mentioned certain hockey stick critics favorably. It looks like he read Top 15 Reasons for Withholding Data at climateaudit. Go to minute 41:20.

Keeping up with the (Mann and) Joneses

Recently one of our correspondents asked:

Could we get some feature so that one can see the date or date/time of last post to a thread? Or so that one can go back and check for any threads that have had recent posts?

It’s not just for unreasonable things like me going back through last year. Even with normal usage, one misses stuff, misses replies.

Continue reading

Updated Polar Urals Data

I have obviously been very critical of the 11th century portion of the Polar Urals dataset used in Briffa et al. [1995], without which Jones et al [1998] does not have a cold 11th century (and which is a staple of other studies). It turns out that Schweingruber collected new subfossil samples for this site in 1999, which are dated back to 778 and have replication in the 11th century. If my hypothesis were correct, then the new information should diverge significantly in the 11th century. Continue reading

Noise in Multiproxy Studies

Someone asked what the graphs in Noise in Jones 1998 would look like for the other multiproxy studies. I speculated that they would probably look similar. In fact, they vary quite a bit. I’ve done plots for Mann and Jones [2003], Esper et al [2002], Crowley and Lowery [2000], Moberg et al [2005] and MBH99. In some cases, I’ve got accurate proxy data; in other cases, I’ve done it with what I’ve got or reconstructed. For amusement, I’ve posted them up without identifying them. You should be able to guess some of them. (I’ll edit in a couple of days and insert labels.) Continue reading

Noise in Jones et al [1998]

People often have a hard time grasping how dificult it is to statistically distinguish between the vaunted multiproxy studies and red noise. Here are a few interesting images from the Jones et al [1998] proxy roster, which I’ve been working on.

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Klemeš on Stochastic Processes

TCO asked about physical processes that can generate time series with autocorrelation properties. This is a harder question than it seems and leads into the giant topic of stochastic processes, which rapidly gets very complicated. I’m not in a position to give a thorough answer, although it’s a topic that interests me a lot. I’ve provided here some extended quotes from V Klemeš, who has spoken to the issue (although more towards persistent processes than AR1 or AMRA(1,1) processes. He also writes acidly on climate modeling, which I also excerpt here, e.g. the following:

This I would call an “honest and humble” search for signals as opposed to the boastful claims of assorted “modellers” about all kinds of climate-change effects, motivated more by politics than by science and reflecting prejudices rather than fact.

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Three Trivia Questions

1. What recent movie features the House Energy and Commerce Commitee? It even shows a hearing. Who befriends the star? What state is the Committee chairman (in the movie) from?
2. In what movie does Steven Spielberg play a county clerk? What does he do in the movie?
3. After Steffi Graf, what German-born tennis player has won the most Grand Slam tournaments?

No googling.

Ferson et al. on Interactions between Data Mining and Spurious Regression

One of the papers that has most informed my views on multiproxy studies (and I’ve mentioned it from time to time) is Ferson et al. [2003], Understanding Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics which I read a couple of years ago. "Spurious regression" here is a false relationship between series, frequently observed with highly autocorrelated series – random walks are the classic example of Granger and Newbold [1974], but the effect is also observable in finite samples of high-AR1 series. These very high AR1 coefficients are characteristic of both proxies and temperature PC series. Some of the phrases from Ferson should send chills up the spine of anyone relying on multiproxy studies:

Data mining for predictor variables [proxies] interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious…

If the expected return accounts for 1 per cent of the stock return variance, mining among 5 to 10 instruments has as much impact as 50 to 100 instruments with no spurious regression. Assuming we sift through only 10 instruments, all of the regressions from the previous studies in Table I appear consistent with a spurious mining process. The pattern of evidence in the instruments in the literature is similar to what is expected under a spurious mining process with an underlying persistent expected return. In this case, we would expect instruments to arise, then fail to work out of sample.

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