Tamino’s Trick: Mann Bites Dog

Self-described “Hansen bulldog” Tamino, writing at NASA’s realclimate blog hosted by Hansen’s other bulldog (Gavin), wrote:

As another example, Montford makes the claim that if you eliminate just two of the proxies used for the MBH98 reconstruction since 1400, the Stahle and NOAMER PC1 series, “you got a completely different result — the Medieval Warm Period magically reappeared and suddenly the modern warming didn’t look quite so frightening.” That argument is sure to sell to those who haven’t done so. But I have. I computed my own reconstructions by multiple regression, first using all 22 proxy series in the original MBH98 analysis, then excluding the Stahle and NOAMER PC1 series.

As always with the Team, you have to watch the pea under the thimble. Tamino has totally misrepresented and misinterpreted Montford on this point. Neither Montford (nor I) ever made such an assertion. The only person to do so, as I’ll show below, was Mann himself.

Continue reading

Radio Discussion of Holland vs Met Office

David Holland’s adventures with Met Office dishonesty is covered in a recent article in a law journal [link] and in a radio segment here *=(h/t Bishop Hill.)

Untruthful answers by the UK Met Office to David Holland’s FOI requests were discussed at CA in 2008. Holland followed up with CRU, thus the “delete any emails” request. (As noted recently, Muir Russell made a totally untruthful characterization of the FOI underpinning of this email.)

Re-post of “Tamino and the Magic Flute”

Tamino’s realclimate post re-states points that I’ve discussed at length in the past. Here is a re-posting of a 2008 post on Tamino that deals with most of the issues in his realclimate post. Continue reading

The Team Defends Paleo-Phrenology

Hansen’s twin pit bulls, Tamino and Gavin, have launched into a spirited defence of Mannian paleo-phrenology at realclimate here, with a counter-discussion at Bishop Hill here. Continue reading

More Data Obstruction: Muir-Wood

One of the more controversial issues in WG2 arose out of Robert Muir-Wood’s calculations on climate-related damages – Pielke Jr taking issue
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/ipcc-mystery-graph-solved.html and http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/hot-on-trail-of-ipcc-mystery-graph.html.

Muir-Wood was a Contributing Author to IPCC AR4.

Earlier this year, I attempted to obtain data used in the underlying publications in order to carry out statistical analyses. I wrote on four occasions.

On Jan 27, 2010, I wrote as follows:

Dear Dr Muir-Wood, Could you please provide me with a digital version of the time series used in the production of Figure 12.5 through 12.9 and Tables 12.A.1 and 12.A.2 of Miller, Muir-Wood and Boissonnade, An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses. Thank you for your attention, Steve McIntyre

In response to my fourth request, Muir-Wood was on holiday and, contrary to Muir-Wood’s total failure to respond, a secretary responded as follows:

Robert is on holiday this week. By copying Auguste [Boissonnade], I am hoping he can help you.

Needless to say, Boisonnade didn’t provide the data either.

Muir-Wood does not work for a public agency – he is employed by Risk Management Solutions (who Bob Ward used to work for.) I asked Ward for assistance, but he refused.

Data Stonewalling Resumes

Ryan O asked serial Mann coauthor, Caspar Ammann, for supporting data for Ammann et al (PNAS 2007), which was referred to in CCSP (2009c) Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitude, an assessment report that was, in turn, cited in the EPA Endangerment Finding. Ryan’s request was as follows:

the monthly gridded gridded monthly temperature anomalies over the entire 850 – 2000 AD period from the NCAR CSM 1.4 experiments used for the 2007 PNAS paper, “Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model”, with Dr. Ammann as the lead author.

Ammann demonstrated the new Team openness by simply not acknowledging or replying to Ryan’s request.

The data is not confidential – Ryan observed that Ammann had previously provided the data to people who were not NCAR employees (e.g. Mann, Wahl and Rutherford)

Ryan eventually sent an FOI request to UCAR – a consortium of universities that manages NCAR for the National Science Foundation. (I’ve written on it before; it’s a sort of off-balance sheet method of public expenditure.)

UCAR’s General Counsel, Meg McClellan, refused Ryan’s request for data as follows:

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) is a private non-profit research organization that operates the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other programs. Neither UCAR nor NCAR are federal agencies. FOIA does not apply to private organizations.

The structure of NCAR is fairly murky. I did posts on UCAR-NCAR a few years ago see https://climateaudit.org/2006/03/23/inhofe-ucar-and-ncar/ and https://climateaudit.org/2006/03/24/ncar-competition-announcement/.

My impression was that NCAR was owned by the National Science Foundation. I can see how UCAR might have evaded FOI, but I’m a little puzzled as to the argument in respect to NCAR.

Given public sentiment, it seems foolish for Ammann and UCAR to obstruct Ryan’s request.

In the meantime, Ryan has sent an FOI to National Science Foundation, observing:


OMB Circular A-110, which defines the requirements by which private, non-profit organizations may accept NSF funds, states under subpart (C):

“(d) (1) In addition, in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for research data relating to published research findings produced under an award that were used by the Federal Government in developing an agency action that has the force and effect of law, the Federal awarding agency shall request, and the recipient shall provide, within a reasonable time, the research data so that they can be made available to the public through the procedures established under the FOIA. If the Federal awarding agency obtains the research data solely in response to a FOIA request, the agency may charge the requester a reasonable fee equaling the full incremental cost of obtaining the research data. This fee should reflect costs incurred by the agency, the recipient, and applicable subrecipients. This fee is in addition to any fees the agency may assess under the FOIA (5 U.S.C. 552(a)(4)(A)).”

Full text available here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/rewrite/circulars/a110/a110.html

NSF FOI specialist Leslie Jensen replied as follows:

Dear Sir:

Your request is not perfected as submitted. See the NSF FOIA regulations: http://www.nsf.gov/policies/foia.jsp. In addition, with respect to your request for research data, 2 CFR 215.36. Section 5 CFR 215.36(d) provides:

215.36 Intangible property.
* * *
(d) (1) In addition, in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for research data relating to published research findings produced under an award that was used by the Federal Government in developing an agency action that has the force and effect of law, the Federal awarding agency shall request, and the recipient shall provide, within a reasonable time, the research data so that they can be made available to the public through the procedures established under the FOIA. If the Federal awarding agency obtains the research data solely in response to a FOIA request, the agency may charge the requester a reasonable fee equaling the full incremental cost of obtaining the research data. This fee should reflect costs incurred by the agency, the recipient, and the applicable subrecipients. This fee is in addition to any fees the agency may assess under the FOIA (5 U.S.C. 552(a)(4)(A)).

(2) The following definitions apply for purposes of paragraph (d) of this section:
(i) Research data is defined as the recorded factual material commonly accepted in the scientific community as necessary to validate research findings, but not any of the following: Preliminary analyses, drafts of scientific papers, plans for future research, peer reviews, or communications with colleagues. This “recorded” material excludes physical objects (e.g., laboratory samples). Research data also do not include:
(A) Trade secrets, commercial information, materials necessary to be held confidential by a researcher until they are published, or similar information which is protected under law; and
(B) Personnel and medical information and similar information the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy, such as information that could be used to identify a particular person in a research study.
(ii) Published is defined as either when:
(A) Research findings are published in a peer-reviewed scientific or technical journal; or
(B) A Federal agency publicly and officially cites the research findings in support of an agency action that has the force and effect of law.
(iii) Used by the Federal Government in developing an agency action that has the force and effect of law is defined as when an agency publicly and officially cites the research findings in support of an agency action that has the force and effect of law.

This section provides for access to research data (as defined above)
– relating to published (as defined above) research findings
– produced under an (NSF) award (made after the effective date of this provision)
– that was used by the Federal Government in developing an agency action that has the force and effect of law (as defined above).

Please identify the NSF awards that meet the preconditions for research data access set forth in section 215.36(d)(1). I have enclosed NSF abstracts of awards to Dr. Caspar Ammann that may be of interest to you. Please also provide your contact information and your agreement to pay accrued fees. Once you have perfected your request, I will proceed in accordance with the procedures set forth the in above Regulations.

Sincerely,
Leslie A. Jensen
FOIA/Privacy Act Officer

Ryan replied with a re-stated request containing the additional information:

Below is the complete request, with the additional information required:

Pursuant to 2 CFR 215.36, Section 5 (d), I hereby request information that was used in support of Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act (EPA). 2 CFR 215.36, Section 5(d) requires release of research data subject to the following conditions:
1. The data is necessary to validate published, peer-reviewed research findings:

A. Ammann, M. C., F. Joos, D. S. Schimel, B. L. Otto-Bleisner, and R. A. Tomas (2007): Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model. PNAS, 104, 3713-3718, doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103

B. Mann, M. E., S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. M. Ammann (2007): Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D12109, 1-18, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272

C. Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, M. K. Hughes, R. S. Bradley, S. K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni (2008): Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS, 105, 13252-13257, doi:10.1073_pnas.0805721105
The data is directly required to validate A and B. Since C relies on B for evaluating the statistical significance of the reconstruction, the data is required to validate the statistical significance calculations (and, hence, whether the results are physically meaningful) for C.
2. The data was produced under a federal award:

A. Award #8217015 (special allocation from the NCAR Directors Reserve)

B. Award #0542356 (M. E. Mann) and #8217015 (C. M. Ammann)

C. Award #0542356 (M. E. Mann)

All award numbers are National Science Foundation numbers.

3. The published research was used by a federal agency in developing an action with the force and effect of law:

A. Cited in the Technical Support Document of the previously mentioned EPA Endangerment Finding via the following synthesis report:
CCSP (2009c) Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitude. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Alley, R.B., Brigham-Grette, J., Miller, G.H., Polyak, L., and White, J.W.C. (coordinating lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston , VA, 461 pp.
C. Cited in the Technical Support Document of the previously mentioned EPA Endangerment Finding via the following synthesis report:
CCSP (2009c) Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitude. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Alley, R.B., Brigham-Grette, J., Miller, G.H., Polyak, L., and White, J.W.C. (coordinating lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston , VA, 461 pp.

The data I request is the complete time series of monthly gridded gridded monthly temperature anomalies over the 850 – 2000 AD period from the NCAR CSM 1.4 experiments used directly in Refs. A and B, and indirectly in Ref. C above. I require no specific format for the data; however, if it is available in text format using a common delimiting scheme (such as space, tab, comma, or fixed-width delimitation) I would prefer those formats.

References:
CCSP (2009c) Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitude. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Alley, R.B., Brigham-Grette, J., Miller, G.H., Polyak, L., and White, J.W.C. (coordinating lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston , VA, 461 pp. http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap1-2/sap1-2-final-report-all.pdf

EPA Endangerment Finding http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/downloads/Endangerment%20TSD.pdf

Blatant Misrepresentation by Muir Russell Panel

The Muir Russell panel blatantly misrepresented the facts surrounding Jones’ notorious request to “delete all emails”, a misrepresentation that, in my opinion, was done, at a minimum, either recklessly or out of gross negligence. Continue reading

Inquiry Disinformation about CRUTEM

In the Guardian debate, George Monbiot’s opening question (made in good faith on his part) pertained to CRUTEM, George noting that the inquiry had been able to derive a CRUTEM-like result from GHCN data and challenging me that this had somehow rebutted my “crusade” on this point.

I tried to deal with this as quickly as I could, since I did not want to waste an already short 5 minutes to deal with disinformation. My answer – which surprised Monbiot – was that CRUTEM had been little more than a passing interest at Climate Audit on which I’d seldom commented. And that Muir Russell’s finding on the triviality of CRU’s temperature unit simply endorsed a point previously made at Climate Audit. This answer seemed to baffle George and others.

Unfortunately, Monbiot and others had uncritically accepted disinformation from the Muir Russell inquiry, which, on this point (as on some others), instead of examining (with citations) actual criticisms from sources like Climate Audit, preferred instead to construct its own allegations which, in this case, they described as “broad allegations which are prevalent in the public domain”. Lucia has often criticized such Gavinesque behavior in other contexts.

My long-standing position on CRUTEM was that CRU’s obstruction of data requests was most likely due to its desire to conceal that it did so little work on quality control; that the CRU result could be derived so trivially that, in effect, CRU no longer served any useful function in this field. Long before Climategate, I’d recommended that CRU’s responsibilities in this field be transferred to the UK Met Office and that the US Department of Energy re-allocate its funding in this area to improvements at GHCN – a point that should be considered carefully in the US DOE review of their funding of CRU (reported by Jonathan Leake here.)

At the Guardian panel, I observed that CRUTEM was an almost microscopically small issue in the Climategate emails – Climategate was about the Hockey Stick and its handling by IPCC, not CRUTEM. CRUTEM was mentioned in only 25 emails and, even then, often passim.

I’ll review some past CA posts to provide support for this. Continue reading

Trevor Davies at the Guardian Panel

Sitting on the dais at the Guardian panel, it seemed to me that the most remarkable moment came when the audience laughed out loud at Trevor Davies about Muir Russell. Continue reading

Demetris Koutsoyannis at 11th Statistical Climatology Meeting

Demetris Koutsoyannis was at two sessions of the 11th Meeting on Statistical Climatology in Edinburgh last week. Continue reading