Tag Archives: MBH98

MBH-style Tests for Normality and Whiteness

Jan 16, 2006 – 9:51 AM

MBH98 and subsequent Mannian papers (MBH99, Rutherford et al , 2005) report briefly that they tested calibration residuals (not verification residuals) for normality and whiteness. These results are used to calculate confidence intervals. They do not use typical tests for whiteness e.g. Ljung-Box portmanteau statistic used not just in econometrics, but also in climate e.g. […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication, Statistics | Also tagged , | Comments (16)

An Exchange at Scientific American

Jun 22, 2005 – 8:44 PM

David Appell has posted up an exchange in Scientific American in response to his hagiography of Michael Mann. Here are some comments on Appell’s points.

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in News and Commentary | Also tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (11)

MBH98 Proxies

Jun 2, 2005 – 8:00 AM

One point that many people do not understand is that merely labelling something a "proxy" and putting it in a multiproxy dataset does not mean that it has any correlation to temperature. I’ve plotted up the 22 proxy series in the 15th century MBH98 dataset so that others could see a little more clearly what […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98 | Comments (21)

MBH Confidence Intervals #2

May 7, 2005 – 7:42 PM

At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , | Comments (9)

MBH98 Confidence Intervals

May 7, 2005 – 12:43 PM

I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard error (“sigma”) of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps. Calculated from confidence intervals for MBH98 reconstruction at NOAA archive here.

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , | Comments (4)