Monthly Archives: February 2005

Replication #11: the 159 Series

Does anyone remember the 159 series said to have been used in MBH98? Mann et al. [2003] stated: MBH98 calculated PCs of proxy sub-networks separately for each interval in their stepwise reconstruction. This is the only sensible approach, as it allows all data available over each sub-interval to be used. This requires 159 independent time […]

Presentation – Tues. March 1 at 4 pm

I will be making my first presentation on our 2005 papers to the Toronto Geological Discussion Group on Tues., March 1, 2005 4 p.m. at the Ontario Club, Commerce Court South, Toronto. Any readers in the area would be welcome to attend. 

Mann et al., submitted to Climatic Change, 2003

Jones and Mann [2004] states: However, a careful analysis (M. E. Mann et al., Critical flaws in a recent criticism of the Mann et al. [1998] study, submitted to Climate Change [sic], 2003) of the McIntyre and McKittrick [2003] result reveals that their anomalous 15th century warmth results from their elimination of over 70% of […]

Mann on Source Code

Mann told Antonio Regalado of the Wall Street Journal that he would not be “intimidated” into releasing source code for MBH98. Here is an account of correspondence with Mann and with the U.S. National Science Foundation: Even before publication of MM03, we politely requested clarification on issues in MBH98. This was a source of controversy […]

Data Policy #1: U.S. Global Change Research Program

I have sometimes been asked why I don’t start a FOI action with respect to source code and source data from the various multiproxy authors. I don’t preclude the possibility totally. However, my first inclination has been to attempt first to obtain the data and code from the authors through a direct and polite request, […]

"Detection and Attribution": Hegerl et al. [2003]

In some recent commentary trying to backpedal from the hockey stick, "detection and attribution" studies have been cited as alternative validations and Hegerl et al [2003] is cited as a key example. I have not looked in detail at these studies, but some features of Hegerl at al. [2003] struck me as so obvious that […]

Replication #10: NH Temperature from Archived RPCs

This next replication exercises shows the results of attempting to reconstruct the NH temperature index from the archived RPCs, with the usual puzzling discrepancies.

Replication #9: MBH98 Instrumental Versions

Mann et al. have archived 3 slightly varying versions of the their "dense" subset and one version of their "sparse" subset. The dense series extend later than the temperature dataset archived at the Corrigendum SI and said to the the source for MBH98 instrumental data. The sparse subset can be reconstructed resaonably closely (but not […]

A Red Noise Spaghetti Diagram

I notice that the phrase "spaghetti diagram" is catching on a little. In connection with MM05, we archived 100 simulated PC1s, using the weird method of MB98. Just for fun, here’s a spaghetti diagram from 6 of these, chosen from the 100 at random, with 25-year smooths. You’ll see why I’m pretty unimpressed with spaghetti […]

Original SI for MBH98

If you go to the original Nature Supplementary Information for MBH98 here, and try to inspect the list of data and list of verification stats (such as they are), you will find that they are no longer there. Update: here