Monthly Archives: September 2005

UCAR, Ammann and Wahl and GRL

Several years ago, there was a great controversy at the journal Climate Research regarding the publication of an article by Soon and Baliunas. Three editors, including Hans von Storch, felt that the peer review leading to acceptance of this article was flawed and resigned in protest. I want to compare some of these events to […]

Crichton at Senate EPW Committee

Michael Crichton made very intelligent testimony to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee here. He mentioned certain hockey stick critics favorably. It looks like he read Top 15 Reasons for Withholding Data at climateaudit. Go to minute 41:20.

Keeping up with the (Mann and) Joneses

Recently one of our correspondents asked: Could we get some feature so that one can see the date or date/time of last post to a thread? Or so that one can go back and check for any threads that have had recent posts? It’s not just for unreasonable things like me going back through last […]

Updated Polar Urals Data

I have obviously been very critical of the 11th century portion of the Polar Urals dataset used in Briffa et al. [1995], without which Jones et al [1998] does not have a cold 11th century (and which is a staple of other studies). It turns out that Schweingruber collected new subfossil samples for this site […]

Noise in Multiproxy Studies

Someone asked what the graphs in Noise in Jones 1998 would look like for the other multiproxy studies. I speculated that they would probably look similar. In fact, they vary quite a bit. I’ve done plots for Mann and Jones [2003], Esper et al [2002], Crowley and Lowery [2000], Moberg et al [2005] and MBH99. […]

Noise in Jones et al [1998]

People often have a hard time grasping how dificult it is to statistically distinguish between the vaunted multiproxy studies and red noise. Here are a few interesting images from the Jones et al [1998] proxy roster, which I’ve been working on.

Klemeš on Stochastic Processes

TCO asked about physical processes that can generate time series with autocorrelation properties. This is a harder question than it seems and leads into the giant topic of stochastic processes, which rapidly gets very complicated. I’m not in a position to give a thorough answer, although it’s a topic that interests me a lot. I’ve […]

Three Trivia Questions

1. What recent movie features the House Energy and Commerce Commitee? It even shows a hearing. Who befriends the star? What state is the Committee chairman (in the movie) from? 2. In what movie does Steven Spielberg play a county clerk? What does he do in the movie? 3. After Steffi Graf, what German-born tennis […]

Ferson et al. on Interactions between Data Mining and Spurious Regression

One of the papers that has most informed my views on multiproxy studies (and I’ve mentioned it from time to time) is Ferson et al. [2003], Understanding Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics which I read a couple of years ago. "Spurious regression" here is a false relationship between series, frequently observed with highly autocorrelated series […]

More on Esper et al [2002]

I’m inching along with Esper. Here I plot up 10 of 14 sites – I’m pretty sure that most will correspond fairly closely to Esper versions (up to the undefined distinction between “linear” and “nonlinear” cores). For 20th century levels to exceed 11th century levels, the “active ingredients” in Esper seem to be the 2 […]