Update: the problem seems to be a little different than initially advertised and the server people have re-described the reason for the shutdown. The problem is due to the number of bytes served; it’s not due to a DOS attack. We didn’t get a 1-2 million hit spike after all. The problem is that we’re […]
Willis writes: A couple of things. First, I’ve digitized all of the Hegerl proxy data, and placed it here. I sampled it at ~three year intervals, and interpolated the actual years. Second, I took a look at their reconstruction method. They say: The first step of the reconstruction technique is to scale the individual proxy […]
The other day we discussed missing data in the Northern Indian Ocean, where the main best tracks archive showed storm track data up to the mid-1970s but lacked wind speed estimates, with a sharp decline in storm track occurrences in the 1970s. In his comment on Webster, Curry et al, William Gray observed that there […]
The reconstruction in Hegerl et al (J Clim) was previously used in Hegerl et al (Nature) which provided some information on the number of series and some other particulars, but did not identify the series. In order to show how farcical the Hockey Team claims of “independence” were, I made guesses last spring about the […]
The Hegerl et al 2006 climate reconstruction is finally online here . I’m going to go through the proxies individually before talking about method. Obviously the first one to look for is Mann’s North American PC1. Although they say that they’ve “moved on”, Mann’s PC1 was used in Osborn and Briffa 2006 and was one […]
On Aug 26, 2006, Judith Curry made the following comment about cyclone data, mentioning that re-processing had been done back to 1983: The tropical cyclone data really is rather a mess, the NATL is definitely the most reliable, so I am focusing on that data set (with all its warts) until the global satellite data […]
I’m looking at some of the details of the Webster, Curry et al 2005 claim that the proportion of intense hurricanes has increased. While I was doing so, I noticed an interesting issue in the Northern Indian Ocean tropical storm counts. Here is an excerpt from Webster et al 2005 Figure showing the count of […]
By far, the most important issue in Emanuel 2005 is Emanuel’s adjustments to West Pacific hurricane wind speeds. I’ve reached this conclusion after expenditure of a considerable amount of time and effort, including looking at every Annual Report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Council from 1959-2003. After doing this, I stumbled on a Comment by […]
One of the critical issues in Emanuel 2005 (and presumably for other like studies) is how measurement inhomogeneity is dealt with. Emanuel relies on Landsea 1993 for a procedure to downward adjust pre-1970 wind speeds. However, prior to Emanuel’s article, Landsea – who seems vastly more authoritative than Emanuel on hurricane data – had pointed […]
Mann and Emanuel 2006 presents an interesting alliance of Emanuel with Michael "I am not a statistician" Mann to carry out calculations purportedly "using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences". It will come as little surprise to readers of this blog that there […]
Climate Audit 