According to KNMI’s version of UKMO CM3, in March 2106, the tropics (20S-20N) will temporarily have an inhospitable temperature of 0.1E21. In a statement, the Hadley Center said that these results showed that the situation was “worse than we thought”. In an interview, Stefan Rahmstorf said that not only was it worse than we thought, […]
Since the publication of Rahmstorf et al 2007, a highly influential comparison of models to observations, David Stockwell has made a concerted effort to figure out how Rahmstorf smoothing worked. I now have a copy of the program and have worked through the linear algebra. It turns out that Rahmstorf has pulled an elaborate practical […]
Figures: Top: Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) Atlantic storm tracks for seasons indicated on the plot. EPW is the “traditional El Nino”. Bottom left: Central Pacific Warming (CPW) or the “new” El Nino described in the paper and right: Eastern Pacific Cooling or La Nina. Track legend: [TS,Hurr,Major,Cat5]:[blue,green,red,pink] A new paper by Kim, Webster, and Curry […]
Quite aside from the realclimatescientistsmoothingalgorithmparameterselectioncontroversy, another interesting aspect of Figure 3 of the Copnhagen Synthesis Report is the cone of model projections. Today I’ll show you how to do a similar comparison for an AR4 model of your choice. Unlike Rahmstorf, I’ll show how this is done, complete with turnkey code. I realize that this […]
Many CA readers have probably been checking out some interesting post at Lucia’s about Stefan Rahmstorf’s opportunistic smoothing of temperature observations in Copenhagen. See here here and here at Lucia’s. Also see David Stockwell’s recent post here and his recent E&E paper on Rahmstorf et al (Science 2007) (Rahmstorf here). Also see the recent Copenhagen […]
With the North Atlantic hurricane season still waiting for a named storm, and the rest of the globe cyclonically challenged during the past several months, it is a good time to catch up on the research end of things. In terms of papers during the past 6-8 months, the amount of tropical cyclone and climate […]
Continuing the petty practice of refusing to cite HS critics, Johann h. Jungclaus, writing in Nature Geoscience, “Lessons from the past millennium”, discusses the “debate about the ‘hockey-stick’ curve” without citing the critical MM articles: Knowledge of past climate evolution is essential for understanding natural climate variability. The debate about the ‘hockey-stick’ curve — a […]
In my last post, I observed that NOAA’s Talking Points applied their new “adjustments” to supposedly prove that NOAA’s negligent administration of the USHCN network did not “matter”. In order to illustrate the effect of the new methods in this post, I’ll compare the new adjustments (post-TOBS) to the old adjustments (post-TOBS) on a “good” […]
The NOAA Talking Points memo falls well short of a “full, true and plain disclosure” standard – aside from the failure to appropriately credit Watts (2009). They presented the following graphic that purported to show that NOAA’s negligent administration of the USHCN station network did not “matter”, describing the stations as follows: Two national time […]
Menne et al (J Clim 2009) reported that there were 62 station deletions and 59 station additions from the most recent roster (which itself had been modified from the original USHCN in the mid-1980s. Menne et al: Since the 1996 release (Easterling et al. 1996), numerous station closures and relocations again necessitated a revision of […]
Climate Audit 