I’ve had a chance to examine Hansen’s argument a little more closely. Structurally it’s a typical splicing argument that we’re familiar with – proxies up to a certain point and then instrumental temperature. In the case of MBH, they use proxies up to 1980 and then compare that to instrumental records. We’re all familiar with […]
We’re going to be hearing more about this – see press release here for example. I’ll add to this headnotes, but, for now, I’ll post up some URLs that some of you may find handy. The underlying article by Hansen et al is at PNAS here. They thank Ralph Cicerone for his review comments. The […]
The U.S. CCSP report on temperature trends includes the following remarkable recommendations on audit trails: The independent development of data sets and analyses by several independent scientists or teams will serve to quantify structural uncertainty and to provide objective corroboration of the results. In order to encourage further independent scrutiny, data sets and their full […]
Get ready for a new round of satellite disputes. Spencer and Christy have version 6.0 out in draft form as of Sept 9, 2006. Here’s a plot of the data from the website . The SH result is particularly intriguing – now showing virtually no change. In the recent U.S. CCSP report, as pointed out […]
A late report on my visit to Holland. I don’t think that I’ve talked as much in a month as I did in 36 hours in Holland. I had two main presentations -one at KNMI in the morning; one at the Free University in the afternoon. I also had two long newspaper interviews and a […]
Here’s a survey article by the International Detection and Attribution Group url. I’ll post a few threads like this, but don’t plan to comment myself. If someone wants to contribute a brief summary, it would be appreciated.
AS both David H’s observe, the Stern Review is expected next month. Their science views are summarized here. I may post some headnotes at a later time, but it’s an interesting browse and some of you may wish to comment on it specifically.
I’ve posted up a pdf for Allen and Tett 1999 here as this seems to be a frequently cited article that said that "optimal fingerprinting" was linear regression and gives a flavor for the literature. The approach looks to me like pretty garden variety methodology, such as one would see in the fall term of […]
The U.K. Royal Society has recently sent a letter to ExxonUK which has attracted commentary about whether it is an interference with free speech (see Roger Pielke and the discussion there) . I’m interested in a different aspect of this letter – their reliance on IPCC detection and attribution discussion. The Royal Society takes exception […]
Here is the (big) change in correlation as the Emanuel data are progressively smoothed, 0x, 1x, 2x. (Here I exclude the endpoints, which is what one ought to do.) cor(SST,PDI) [1] 0.5050575 cor(SST.1,PDI.1) [1] 0.6278249 cor(SST.2,PDI.2) [1] 0.7484223 Square those to obtain r^2. Here are two graphs of Emanuel’s SST and PDI, showing the effect […]
Climate Audit 
Stern Review – Technical Appendix
AS both David H’s observe, the Stern Review is expected next month. Their science views are summarized here. I may post some headnotes at a later time, but it’s an interesting browse and some of you may wish to comment on it specifically.