Geert Jan van Oldenburgh of KNMI develops and, in his part time, maintains excellent KNMI’s Climate Explorer. I recommend that Curt Covey of PCMDI examine whether they should abandon their own much less satisfactory access points. Hadley Center as well. The other day, I was interested in deriving a HadISST monthly tropical average. The data […]
Verification of the Improved High PC Reconstruction
Last year, I reported the invalidity using up-to-date data of Santer’s claim that none of the satellite data sets showed a “statistically significant” difference in trend from the model ensemble, after allowing for the effect of AR1 autocorrelation on confidence intervals. Including up-to-date data, the claim was untrue for UAH data sets and was on […]
I’ve just collated ERSST v3b and ERSST v2 versions for the tropics and compared ERSST v3 and ERSST v2 versions. CA readers were undoubtedly ready for adjustments, but, using the technical terminology of the leading climate journals, the adjustments were “worse than we thought”. ERSST v3 lowered SSTs before 1880 by up to 0.3 deg […]
A shout out for Bob Tisdale’s blog here. Bob cross-posts at Anthony’s from time to time. At his own blog, he’s done a number of excellent analyses of SST data sets. On many occasions, I’ve observed that critical analysis of the temperature record has spent a disproportionate amount of attention on land data sets relative […]
With the North Atlantic hurricane season officially starting in a couple weeks (June 1), but possibly getting a head start with a developing low-pressure system in the Bahamas, considerable attention will be paid by the media to each and every storm that gets a name. In the North Atlantic, a name is granted to a […]
Rather than spending time archiving information from his various publications, Santer has placed his scientific priorities on introducing a remarkable cartoon (Youtube here), which ends (see 7 minutes on) with a ditty urging its audience to “do something about the power of poop”. The video ends with a close-up of a large odiferous dropping, with […]
The new USHCN was scheduled to come out a couple of years ago. A paper describing it has finally appeared, discussed by Pielke Sr here. I haven’t reviewed the new paper – something that I’ll be looking for is whether they rely on “homemade” changepoint methods to supposedly achieve homogeneity – “homemade” in the sense […]
For a seemingly simple topic, the calculation of trends and their confidence intervals has provoked a lot of commentary (see any number of threads at Lucia’s). Today, I’m presenting what I think is an interesting approach to the problem using maximum likelihood. In a way, the approach builds on work that I did last year […]
Climate Audit 