Category Archives: Modeling

HadCRU3 versus GISS

I made a subset of HadCRU3 to cover the continental U.S. and compared it to the USHCN-2000 version.

Adjusting USHCN History

Although the USHCN version used in Hansen’s 1999 press release seems to be expunged from official U.S. government records, it was fortunately preserved by John Daly. Jerry Brennan sent me a link to a version preserved by John Daly yesterday, from which I was able to replicate the version in the 1999 press release, as […]

The 1930s are getting Colder

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC),, covered here, a new Beta version of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network will be released next year. They say that the new data set uses “recent scientific advances that better address uncertainties in the instrumental record. Because different algorithms were used in making adjustments to the station […]

Feedback in Collins et al 2006

On a couple of occasions, I’ve noted that near infrared water vapor parameterizations in HITRAN-1996 were incorrect and wondered about what the impact of these changes would have been on a non-retuned GCM. It looks like Collins et al JGR 2006 have done something like that – implementing HITRAN changes up to 2003. Unfortunately, they […]

The "First" Assessed Likely Range for Climate Sensitivity

One of the remarkable claims in the AR4 Summary for Policy-Makers was that they provided the first “ assessed likely range to be given for climate sensitivity”, which they reported as follows: the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations … is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C […]

This "Fix" in the GISS Code

Gavin Schmidt , one of the promoters of realclimate, is a climate modeler in his spare time, involved with GISS Model E. Dan Hughes, who sometimes posts here, has a new blog at which he’s posted up some comments on GISS code A GISS Model E code fragment. The code has the following interesting comment: […]

Possible ITCZ Influence

Jerry Browning writes the following about the balance between vertical velocity and total heating: Browning and Kreiss (2002) have shown that as one moves from the large-scale features in the midlatitudes to the smaller scale features, a balance between the vertical velocity and the total heating must be maintained for the solution to evolve slowly […]

Exponential Growth in Physical Systems

Gerry Browning sent in the following post: If a time dependent equation has a solution that grows exponentially in time, then that solution is very sensitive to errors in the initial condition, i.e., any error in the initial condition will cause an exponential deviation in time from the true solution.

IPCC and Solar Correlations

Here’s a post which I wrote last June but didn’t post up at the time because the NAS Panel report came out and I had other pressing matters to comment on. My post as then drafted started: Last week, through Chefen, Jean S and myself, here here here and here , we showed that MBH98 […]

Pat Frank: Forcing assumptions in GCMs

The following comes from Pat Frank regarding my question here This plot shows projections from 10 of the 15 GCMs tested in the “Intercomparison of Present and Future Climates Simulated by Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCMs” CMDI Report No. 66. The GCM data were digitized off Figure 27 of the Report. The plot also shows the linear […]