Category Archives: Multiproxy Studies

Jones et al. [1998]: The Proxies

Jones et al [1998]] did not archive their proxy set as used. I requested this information from Jones this year and was refused, although he did send me two series (Lenca, Law Dome) not locatable anywhere in a public archive about a year ago. Here is some background on the proxies in Jones et al […]

Jones et al [1998]: Confidence Intervals

I’m working away at Jones et al [1998]. Here’s an interesting diagram from Jones et al [Science, 2001] , which purports to provide confidence intervals for the J98 reconstruction (blue). There’s (at least) one really strange feature in this diagram. See if you can pick it out. Original Caption: Fig. 2. (A) Northern Hemisphere surface […]

More on Urals and Tornetrask

I’m finally trying to finalize my presentation on Jones et al [1998] for the US GCRP workshop in November, which is necessarily mostly about the Polar Urals and Tornetrask reconstructions. Bot MXD chronologies and RW chronologies are supposed to correlate to temperature. So an obvious quesiton is how do they correlate to eachother. I’ve plotted […]

Naurzbaev

Naurzbaev et al [2004] is a terrific article by Naurzbaev, Hughes (yes, that Hughes) and Vaganov about deducing climate information from tree-ring growth curves in Siberia. (I find Naurzbaev’s work consistently interesting.) They studied 34 larch sites in a meridional transect from 55 to 72 N (at a longitude of about 90-100E) and 23 larch […]

UCAR, Ammann and Wahl and GRL

Several years ago, there was a great controversy at the journal Climate Research regarding the publication of an article by Soon and Baliunas. Three editors, including Hans von Storch, felt that the peer review leading to acceptance of this article was flawed and resigned in protest. I want to compare some of these events to […]

Updated Polar Urals Data

I have obviously been very critical of the 11th century portion of the Polar Urals dataset used in Briffa et al. [1995], without which Jones et al [1998] does not have a cold 11th century (and which is a staple of other studies). It turns out that Schweingruber collected new subfossil samples for this site […]

Noise in Multiproxy Studies

Someone asked what the graphs in Noise in Jones 1998 would look like for the other multiproxy studies. I speculated that they would probably look similar. In fact, they vary quite a bit. I’ve done plots for Mann and Jones [2003], Esper et al [2002], Crowley and Lowery [2000], Moberg et al [2005] and MBH99. […]

Noise in Jones et al [1998]

People often have a hard time grasping how dificult it is to statistically distinguish between the vaunted multiproxy studies and red noise. Here are a few interesting images from the Jones et al [1998] proxy roster, which I’ve been working on.

More on Esper et al [2002]

I’m inching along with Esper. Here I plot up 10 of 14 sites – I’m pretty sure that most will correspond fairly closely to Esper versions (up to the undefined distinction between “linear” and “nonlinear” cores). For 20th century levels to exceed 11th century levels, the “active ingredients” in Esper seem to be the 2 […]

Jones et al [1998]: Gridcell Correlations

Since I showed the effect of smoothing on the relationship of Dunde to temperature, I thought that it would be useful to post up a table showing the Jones et al [1998] proxy correlations to temperature versus my calculations using HadCRU2.