Dasuopu Versions

Al Gore’s hockey stick is from Lonnie Thompson’s ice cores. [Update: subsequent to this, we discovered that Al Gore’s hockey stick is not “DR Thompson’s thermometer” but Mann’s hockey stick wearing a wig.] On previous occasions, we’ve talked about the Guliya ice core -Thompson’s failure to archive data; the use of three different and inconsistent versions in three different 2006 peer-reviewed publications and the questionable use of a core in the flow zone. Paul Dennis wrote to Thompson trying to clarify the Guliya situation and got nowhere.

I recently discussed Dasuopu Core 1, which could be dated back only to 1922. I was recently looking at Dasuopu for a different reason. A new version of Dasuopu information is contained in Thompson et al (Quat Int 2006) showing increased detail in the 1990s. We’ve seen how Emanuel used bin-and-pin to make a high closing value look like a strong trend. The new graphic indicates that Dasuopu actually closes on a very low value. An Emanuel bin-and-pin applied to this data would give a very different impression than the strong 20th century trend presented by Thompson. (BTW Dasuopu dO18 is regarded as being a precipitation amount proxy even in Thompson’s original publication. Of course that does not stop Thompson from adding it together with other tropical dO!8 proxies, also probably precipitation proxies, and calling it a temperature proxy and Al Gore using it as a new hockey stick – but that’s another story.

For today, I’m simply going to collate various Thompson versions. Now the differences are not as egregious as Guliya (which has been discussed recently) but the differences are intriguing.
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A little help setting up LaTeX

One of the remaining things that needs to be fixed is LaTeX support on the blog, and I’d appreciate a little help to solve a problem.
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Gulf of Mexico SST Proxy

Here’s an interesting SST proxy from the Gulf of Mexico that I meant to report on last October, but is actually more timely now given our recent discussion of hurricanes. When I corresponded with Lloyd Keigwin around the time of the Juckes submission, he mentioned a “beautiful” unpublished high resolution core from Poore in the Gulf of Mexico, which, with a little detective work, turned out to be a core in Pigmy Basin which Poore and associates (Julie Richey) had put online as a poster.

Julie Richey made an excelllent presentation at my AGU session which I noted up here (comment=73623). While the proxy is interesting in itself as a high resolution proxy showing a MWP, it is of extra interest because it is located in the Gulf of Mexico just to the west of the Katrina-Rita hot spot as readily seen if you compare the location map below to the hurricane hot spots, for example, here. (The core in Richey et al PBBC1 is not shown in this location map but is also in Pigmy Basin nearby.) Continue reading

Bob K's Hurricane Image

Here is Bob K’s image of Cat 3 plus hurricanes in three 50-year tranches. Are the changes climatological or methodological? Continue reading

Interview with Fred Michel on Arctic Ice Shelves

Fred Michel, an Arctic specialist from Carleton University, in an interview, discusses Arctic ice shelf break-up. http://www.cfra.com/chum_audio/Fred_Michel_Jan10.mp3

Ice Island T-3

Looking at the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf, the specialist literature distinguished between “basement” ice that is relatively old and firn ice that is much younger. The “basement ice” period ended with the end of the “first ablation period” which Crary 1960 dated to ~1600 BP – a date which Lyons et al 1973 noted to reset uncomfortably with dates from Greenland ice core. “Basement ice” is marked by an angular unconformity with more recent ice and by a heavy dirt layer, which is the residue of many years of ablation. Some portions of the ice shelf were confidently dated as being relatively young by virtue of the absence of the dirt layer. Some recent ice shelf calving e.g. the large 1961-1962 break at Ward Hunt ice shelf or the small 2003 break at Ward Hunt ice shelf almost certainly do not contain any “basement ice”. The Hobson’s Choice ice island (discussed in Jeffries 2002) did not have any basement ice. At present, I don’t have information on calving from Ayles ice shelf.

Today I’d like to discuss the evidence from ice island T-3, which was a prominent feature of early exploration in this area, because it was the location of an exploration camp. Jeffries 2002 (an interesting survey) reported that ice islands were discovered by reconnaissance flights following World War II and were quickly attributed as being calved from the Ellesemere Ice Shelf. Jeffries 2002:

The first ice island, named T-1, was seen in 1946, when a U.S. Army Air Force (USAAF) reconnaissance mission over the Arctic Ocean reported a heart-shaped ice mass that had dimensions of 24-29 km and an area of about 500 km surrounded by sea ice (Koenig and others, 1952). Subsequently, ice islands T-2, T-3, T-4, and T-5 were observed from the air or identified on aerial photographs between 1946 and 1950 in the Arctic Ocean, and 59 unnamed ice islands were found in aerial photographs of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago taken in 1950 (Koenig and others, 1952).

Some interesting historical information on the scientific camp can be seen if you google “t3 ice island”.

The T3 ice island proved to have a very distinctive dirt layer – similar to the dirt layer in Ward Hunt basement ice. Crary 1960 radiocarbon-dated the dirt layer obtaining dates exceeding 3000 BP and hypothesized that it was older than the Ward Hunt ice shelf as follows:

T3 may be older than the ice shelf at the Ward Hunt island area. The outcropping of a heavy dirt layer on the edges of T3 was 10 to 15 meters higher than its location at the camp site on T3; the steep dip of the ice layers south of the Ward Hunt ice rise (Marshall 1955) are best explained by a rising of the land areas. The old strand cracks found at an elevation of more than 20 meters above the present active ones on the south side of the Ward Hunt ice rise are difficult to explain except by uplift of land. Using C14 ages of the marine shell samples, which give an uplift of about 0.5 meters per centurry, a minimum age of a few thousand years could be expected for both the ice island and ice shelf.

Crary and others attributed the origin of the T3 ice island to an earlier break-up of the ice shelf at Cape Yattersley – presumably taking place at some point subsequent to the Peary expedition in the 1890s, perhaps the warm 1930s.

The interesting aspect for interpretation of this class of evidence is that T3 is an attestation of the break-up of basement ice in the 1930s. Over 90% of the Ellesmere ice shelf is said to have already taken place. I am unaware of any evidence of recent break-up of basement ice at Ward Hunt ice shelf and the maps indicate that the basement ice has remained intact. Even if the Ayles calving includes basement ice (which cannot be discerned one way or the other from the information that I’ve seen), calving (of basement ice) seems to have been much more prevalent in earlier parts of the 20th century, suggesting that recent warming is not necessarily critical in whatever is going on.

Warm Pool and the Arabian Sea

It’s a dangerous practice to let your eye get teased into visual comparisons, but I was struck by a comparison between the G Bulloides series from the Arabian Sea (which is an upwelling proxy) and Stott’s Warm Pool SST proxies. Continue reading

Hurricane Pinball

I plotted up the tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes with peak winds of at lest 110 knots in time-tranches color-coding the track in 30-knot groups. One thing that intrigued me – it’s probably nothing particular remarkable to specialists – is that many of the big hurricanes had surprisingly similar tracks. Look at the plots below and see if you agree.
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Ward Hunt Ice Shelf Stratigraphy

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf has a rather complicated history and stratigraphy. Fortunately, the original studies of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in the 1960s and 1970s were done by geologists rather than climatologists and, as a result, there are decent maps in the early literature showing relevant details of the stratigraphy. (Compare their maps to Jacoby’s inability to provide a location of the Gaspé cedars sampled in 1983 as this was before GPS.) Continue reading

Ayles Ice Shelf, Ellesmere Island

Late last year and early this year, various news stories reported the demise of the Ayles Ice Shelf, Ellesmere Island. On Dec. 29, 2006, National Geographic reported Giant Ice Shelf Breaks Off in Canadian Arctic and on Jan 4, 2007, CNN reported the story. The catastrophe actually occurred in August 2005, but no one noticed reported it until 16 months later. Continue reading