Tag Archives: climate models

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 2

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible A guest post by Nic Lewis In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[i] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al (2018; henceforth Caldwell),[ii] who […]

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 1

Their nature and assessment of their validity A guest post by Nic Lewis There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5) and previous (CMIP3) generations. The range of ECS values in GCMs […]

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction and summary Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1] It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is […]

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my article commenting on his Nature paper

Introduction I thank Patrick Brown for his detailed response (also here) to statistical issues that I raised in my critique “Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought” of his and Ken Caldeira’s recent paper (BC17).[1] The provision of more detailed information than was given in BC17, and […]

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global warming, by scientists Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, was published by Nature.[1]  The paper (henceforth referred to as BC17) says in its abstract: “Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future […]

Connolley co-author: “Unfortunately we have deleted all the NetCDF files…”

Recently, I made a request to Thomas Bracegirdle, junior partner of Connolley and Bracegirdle, for the model data used in two recent articles: Bracegirdle and Connolley (GRL 2007) about 20th century Antarctic models; and Bracegirdle, Connolley and Turner (JGR 2008) about 21st century Antarctic models. William Connolley is well known in the blogosphere, especially for […]