Monthly Archives: February 2005

Spot the Hockey Stick! #4 – The US Climate Change Program

Another sighting of our favorite climate reconstruction is to be found at the "Strategic Plan for the Climate Change, Science Program, Final Report, July 2003", published by the US Climate Change Science Program. This document quotes the opinion of the IPCC 2001 report as the basis for its declaration Climate research has indicated that, globally, […]

Medieval Treelines #1

Larry Huldén of the Finnish Museum of Natural Science sent me a nice note, mentioning: I have met Phil Jones in Helsinki during a Climate meeting. My wife had a paper on mediaeval warm period in Finland in which she showed that oak (Quercus robur) forests occurred some 150 km north of the present time […]

Feedback from Dr Vincent Gray

McIntyre and McKitrick have done a great job casting doubt on the first part of the Mann "Hockey Stick" and I will be surprised if the IPCC can still retain it in its original form.  However, we are still up against the second part of the "Hockey Stick" the alleged surface temperature record, as promulgated […]

Ross McKitrick on Canadian TV

Ross will be on the Global television network in Canada at 6:30 pm Eastern time. Stephane Dion, Minister of the Environment in Canada, will be doing one interview. Ross will be doing another. (It was taped today.)

Sir John Houghton and the Hockey Stick #1

Of all people involved in the promotion of the Hockey Stick, Sir John Houghton, head of the IPCC is probably the chief champion of MBH98 and MBH99 as the "scientific consensus" of how the global climate changed in the last millenium. Here’s Sir John in front of that famous graph Referring to the Hockey Stick, […]

Errors Matter #2: the "Different" Method of Rutherford et al [2005]

Yesterday in Errors Matter #1, I argued that any new reconstruction now proposed by Mann et al. as a means of salvaging MBH98-type results has to also meet the representations and warranties of MBH98 used to induce widespread acceptance. I showed that the no-PC reconstruction recently proposed by Mann et al. as a way of […]

Errors Matter #1: the no-PC Alternative

Mann et al. have responded to our criticism by claiming that the errors which we have identified “don’t matter” because they can “get” MBH-type results under several different methods, one of which is through not using any PCs. Ross and I previewed an initial reply to these arguments here and plan to issue a pdf […]

Collation of Moberg Data

I’ve written a script in R to collate Moberg data from original sources (plus 3 collations of tree ring site chronologies which I’d done previously and 1 digitized version sent to me). This is a working document and subject to change as more information becomes available, but is posted here in case other people are […]

A Trifecta

I can’t complain about news coverage in senior journals with a trifecta of Nature, Science and the Economist. Here’s link to the Economist article. The Science and Nature are pay-per-view, but I quoted from them here and here. While none of them are exactly throwing rose petals as we walk, neither is there a knee-jerk […]

MBH98: Variance Scaling

I think that Mann et al. are on the horns of an interesting dilemma on variance scaling (and there is no injustice in this.) MàƒÆ’à‚ⵢerg et al. [2005], following von Storch et al. [2004], argue that the use of regression-based methods in MBH98/99 result in the lesser variability in the shaft of the hockey-stick. Here […]