I’ve posted up a pdf for Allen and Tett 1999 here as this seems to be a frequently cited article that said that "optimal fingerprinting" was linear regression and gives a flavor for the literature. The approach looks to me like pretty garden variety methodology, such as one would see in the fall term of […]
The U.K. Royal Society has recently sent a letter to ExxonUK which has attracted commentary about whether it is an interference with free speech (see Roger Pielke and the discussion there) . I’m interested in a different aspect of this letter – their reliance on IPCC detection and attribution discussion. The Royal Society takes exception […]
Here is the (big) change in correlation as the Emanuel data are progressively smoothed, 0x, 1x, 2x. (Here I exclude the endpoints, which is what one ought to do.) cor(SST,PDI) [1] 0.5050575 cor(SST.1,PDI.1) [1] 0.6278249 cor(SST.2,PDI.2) [1] 0.7484223 Square those to obtain r^2. Here are two graphs of Emanuel’s SST and PDI, showing the effect […]
Here’s Willis’ most recent summary of the ongoing dialogue on the Emanuel story.
This continues the previous post which is overweight in comments.
The NAS Panel used Esper et al 2002 as a comfort series in their spaghetti graph, but did not perform any due diligence on it. As some of you may recall, I’ve had prolonged correspondence with Science, after being stonewalled by Esper, and, as a result of that, have obtained versions of the chronologies used […]
On Sep 11-12, 2006, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology) in Stockholm, Sweden hosted an international seminar on climate variability (seminar website here). The seminar had 16 speakers from 14 countries and was attended by 120 people. It was organized by Peter Stilbs and Fred Goldberg, who extended great hospitality to the presenters. Anders FlodstràÆà, President […]
On Aug 12, I wrote to Ralph Cicerone, President of NAS, asking him to request unarchived data from various authors relied upon by the NAS Panel as follows: I enjoyed the opportunity to chat with you during the most recent hearings of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. As I have previously written to you, […]
Is anyone interested in starting a separate thread on water vapor and cloud feedbacks? While it is of some relevance to the hurricane/global warming topic, the relevance is indirect and this topic certainly has enough scientific meat for its own thread (provided people are sufficiently interested. Comment by Judith Curry “¢’¬? 17 September 2006 @ […]
I’ve transferred a discussion from Road Map to a separate thread here. Here’s a plot of monthly CET temperatures and a simple R script to download the data and make the plot. The warmest months are as follows: <><><><>< JAN 1916 FEB 1779 MAR 1957 APR 1865 MAY 1833 JUN 1846 JUL 2006 AUG 1995 […]
Climate Audit 
Royal Society and Detection/Attribution
The U.K. Royal Society has recently sent a letter to ExxonUK which has attracted commentary about whether it is an interference with free speech (see Roger Pielke and the discussion there) . I’m interested in a different aspect of this letter – their reliance on IPCC detection and attribution discussion. The Royal Society takes exception […]