Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

North and NAS on Bristlecones

BTW, I thought that the Chronicle colloquy was pretty interesting. I don’t usually get to ask people questions directly, so I appreciated that the Chronicle allowed questions through without Gavin Schmidt/realclimate censoring. Now that I think of it, the only other question that I’ve been able to ask a climate scientist directly was to Caspar […]

Pat Frank on North's Seminar

Here is Pat Frank’s post on North’s seminar. You should also look at North’s answers in the Chronicle Q&A session yesterday. North has a slide in his presentation entitled “Enter the Amateurs”. If one associates professionalism with care and due diligence, one wonders whether he has placed this particular cue at the right location in […]

Nature Again

We took another try at Nature corrspondence. In their news report on the Mann graph discussed here , they stated: In its report, released on 22 June, the NAS committee more-or-less endorses the work behind the graph. They published a whining letter about the NAS panel and news conference by Mann et al, where they […]

Gerry North Presentation on NAS Report

North has a Texas A&M Seminar presentation here (deleted available here) . North is a nice and decent guy but this is a frustrating presentation in a lot of ways. At minute 55 or so, he describes panel operating procedure by saying that they “didn’t do any research”, that they just “took a look at […]

AGU Fall Meeting 2006

Session U12 of the AGU Fall meeting (Session organizers: Gerald North, Bette Otto-Bliesner, John M. Wallace, and Ian Kraucunas[ of NRC]) has the following session description Numerous studies concerning large-scale surface temperature reconstructions have been published over the last decade. The National Research Council recently completed a report summarizing the status of these efforts. The […]

New Article in Chronicle of Higher Education

Here is a link to a new article in Chronicle of Higher Education about the HS debate in congress. This link should work for the next 5 days. A sidebar is available at the following link. There will be an online discussion Wednesday Sept. 6 at noon eastern time with Gerald North about the hockey […]

My Prediction for dO18 at Bona Churchill

In 2000, Lonnie Thompson drilled ice cores at Kilimanjaro which were published 2 years later. In 2003, they drilled ice cores at Bona Churchill in Alaska. They made a presentation at AGU with press release in 2004 about looking for (and not finding) White River Ash from an 803 AD eruption. But no publications so […]

Greene: I am not, nor have I ever been a member of a data-mining discipline

Many of the problems in multiproxy studies have very strong parallels in econometrics. It’s really econometricians – who know all about autocorrelated series and data mining – rather than statisticians who really should be involved in climate statistics. Here are some quotes from Clinton Greene, from an article about data mining from an issue of […]

More Tangled Webs

Here’s something amusing. Mann has written to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, arguing that we made a fundamental and obvious mistake in how we calculated AR1 coefficients for the North American tree ring network, which exaggerated the HS-ness of the simulated hockey sticks – a mistake that Ritson has now supposedly picked up and […]

More Bender on Hurricane Counts

Posted for bender. bender writes: Attached are analyses of Willis’s landfalling hurricane data in post # 35. Interesting facts: 1. 1974-2005 trend is "n.s." (Note 95% confidence intervals now present.) 2. PACs for lag 10 and 20 are marginally significant. (Recall that for total # hurricanes lag 5 and 10 were sig. It is as […]