The Liberal government in Canada, the hosts of the recent Montreal COP conference, has been defeated. A Conservative minority government has been elected. It will be approximately: Conservatives 122; Liberals 103; Bloc Quebecois 50; NDP (Socialist) 32; Independent (a Quebec radio shock jock) 1. I’ve hardly ever discussed Kyoto on this blog although it’s the […]
I’ve been working away at our reply to Ammann and Wahl so I’m a little behind in blogging. One of our readers drew my attention to a discussion in the New York Times involving our favorite bristlecone pines. Kammerer et al. [J. Im. Gen. 2006] report the extension of human lifespan to 969 years following […]
Here’s an interesting op ed by philosopher David Oderburg, who says: I venture to suggest that contemporary science is now so corrupted by the lust for loot and glory that nothing less than root-and-branch reform can save it. For a start, although I distance myself wholly from his anti-rationalism and methodological anarchy, I share the […]
I’ve just noticed at the UCAR website that Ammann and Wahl now say that their CC re-submission was “provisionally accepted” on Dec 12. I have no information on what a "provisional acceptance" means, but it’s certainly a coincidence that the “provisional acceptance” occurred only 3 days after GRL agreed to send their previously rejected GRL […]
MBH98 and subsequent Mannian papers (MBH99, Rutherford et al , 2005) report briefly that they tested calibration residuals (not verification residuals) for normality and whiteness. These results are used to calculate confidence intervals. They do not use typical tests for whiteness e.g. Ljung-Box portmanteau statistic used not just in econometrics, but also in climate e.g. […]
Important stuff – 24 starts up again after the 2nd football game today. Last season ended with Jack Bauer’s death being faked in order to avoid an assassination attempt against Jack commissioned by the Vice President, acting as President while the President was incapacitated. Jack was also being sought by the Chinese for the attack […]
Some interesting comments in today’s Washington Post. Thanks to Roger Pielke for the reference. Roger pointed to the following: Rather, we need to recognize just how arduous and painstaking good science usually is and remind ourselves that data do not become dogma when published, but only when independently validated. Quite so. The article also pointed […]
Continued from Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 OK, back to Ammann at AGU, his answer to the cross-validation R2 and my offer to him after our lunch. I think that asking for the cross-validation R2 was a good one-bite question at several different levels. First, it’s objective and any prevarications are noticeable to the […]
As I was writing up my note on Ammann at AGU, I re-read Mann’s reply to Barton, which mentions "ammann" no fewer than 11 times, usually as an "independent" scientist confirming his results. I’ve collected the mentions here, which make for some merry reading. Then I’ll discuss exactly how "independent" Caspar Michael Ammann (should we […]
I promise that I’ll get to Ammann’s answer. I’ve gotten sidetracked a little in documenting how Ammann’s unpublished work has been applied in the U.S. Congress. I’ll get to Mann’s letter to the House Energy and Commerce Committee in a minute. Meantime here is an interesting comment by Sir John Houghton to the testifying before […]
Climate Audit 
Canadian Federal Election Results
The Liberal government in Canada, the hosts of the recent Montreal COP conference, has been defeated. A Conservative minority government has been elected. It will be approximately: Conservatives 122; Liberals 103; Bloc Quebecois 50; NDP (Socialist) 32; Independent (a Quebec radio shock jock) 1. I’ve hardly ever discussed Kyoto on this blog although it’s the […]