Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

Penn State President Fired

On the same day that Nature published yet another editorial repudiating public examination of the conduct of academic institutions, Penn State President Graham Spanier was fired from his $813,000/year job for failing to ensure that a proper investigation was carried out in respect to pedophilia allegations in Penn State’s hugely profitable football program. The story […]

Un-Muddying the Waters

A few days ago, in a comment at CA, NASA blogger Gavin Schmidt stated that, over land, the ratio of lower troposphere trends to surface trends in the GISS ER model was 0.95 (+- 0.07) and thus there was no downscaling over land of tropospheric trends. Schmidt linked to a November 2009 realclimate post, “Muddying […]

BEST Data “Quality”

CA CA reader Gary Wescom writes about more data quality problems with the Berkeley temperature study – see here. In a surprising number of records, the “seasonally adjusted” station data in the Berekely archive contains wildly incorrect data. Gary shows a number of cases, one of which, Longmont 2ESE, outside the nest of climate scientists […]

Collated A1B Model Runs

The other day, Gavin Schmidt stated that the amplification factor over land for tropospheric trends to surface trends for GISS models was only 0.95. A reader reported that an amplification factor of 1.1 had been reported in an article by Pielke Sr et al, relying on a pers comm. Some readers expressed frustration over the […]

Closing Thoughts on BEST

In the 1980s, John Christy and Roy Spencer revolutionized the measurement of temperature data through satellite measurement of oxygen radiance in the atmosphere. This accomplishment sidestepped the intractable problems of creating (what I’ll call) a “temperature reconstruction” from surface data known to be systemically contaminated (in unknown amounts) by urbanization, land use changes, station location […]

Help Robert Rohde Locate Argentina

Several years ago, CA helped UCAR locate the lost civilization of Chile. UCAR was then receiving weather information from stations for which they were unable to determine latitude or longitude, including many mysterious stations in Chile. UCAR’s problem was complicated by the fact that it was receiving information from stations with locations unknown to them, […]

BEST, Menne Slices

A couple of years ago, Matthew Menne of NOAA applied a form of changepoint algorithm in USHCN v2. While changepoint methods do exist in conventional statistics, Menne’s use of these methods to introduce thousands of breaks in noisy and somewhat contaminated data was novel. BEST’s slicing methodology, in effect, implements a variation of Menne’s methodology […]

Lampasas in BEST

A couple of years ago, Anthony observed a gross discontinuity at Lampasas TX arising from a change in station location. Let’s see how the Berkeley algorithm deals with this gross discontinuity.

Detroit Lakes in BEST

In the 2007 analysis of the GISS dataset, Detroit Lakes was used as a test case. (See prior posts on this station here). I’ve revisited it in the BEST data set, comparing it to the older USHCN data that I have on hand from a few years ago. First, here is a simple plot of […]

BEST Singletons

BEST stated that one of their distinctive skills was their supposed ability to use short station histories. This seems to include station histories as short as a single data point. In the BEST station data, there are 130 singletons. An example is Cincinnati Whiteoak which has one record as shown below: # 137532 1 1970.125 […]