I’ve been looking recently at some issues in the post-1820 proxy data and re-noticed some things that I’d seen before but lacked my present context. Most of you are familiar with the CRU temperature series since 1850. Of course, there are instrumental series that go before that. MBH98 used 12 long instrumental series. There are […]
I’m now completely file compatible with Wahl and Ammann. In terms of my algorithm, I had to tweak the procedure for scaling RPCs a little, but the RPCs themselves were identical. It took some patience to reconcile differing data setups. I archived results from a complete run-through from their base case a couple of days […]
I’ve done a complete run using the WA basecase using the Windows-modified script that I archived a couple of days ago. From the output of this run, I extracted the results of the AD1400 step and made a stepwise splice, which I’ve saved here together with the MBH98 stepwise reconstruction. This may be of interest […]
As I discussed previously here, I had been able to quite accurately replicate Mann’s temperature principal components (the first 16 of which have been archived for a long time). Notwithstanding that these calculations can actually be replicated quite accurately, Wahl and Ammann calculated new reference temperature PCs using annual data on the basis that they […]
I’m progressing nicely with the process of parsing Ammann. The correlation between our AD1400 emulations of the MBH98 reconstructed PC1 is 0.9993201!
So far there have been 4 Comments submitted to GRL on our paper, including Wahl and Amman which is 4th in the queue, plus the WA submission to Climatic Change. Se we’re being noticed. The GRL format for a Comment is 50% of the length of the original article, with an equal length allocated to […]
Wahl and Amman code is designed for Unix. I’ve done the tweaks for Windows, doing tweaks for both the masterfile (for their base case) and for the file of directories. There might be some simpler way of doing the tweaks, but this version doesn’t crash on my machine. This should transport OK to other machines. […]
Here are some first thoughts. So far I don’t see anything in W-A that affects any of our results. Indeed, I expect that W-A is going to be very positive for this debate, as the points at issue are going to be narrowed sufficiently closely that any people actually interested in the results (as opposed […]
At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]
I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard error (“sigma”) of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps. Calculated from confidence intervals for MBH98 reconstruction at NOAA archive here.
Climate Audit 