Tag Archives: RE

MBH98 Confidence Intervals

Nov 10, 2023 – 10:55 AM

Continued from here. The Dirty Laundry residual datasets for AD1000, AD1400 and AD1600 were each calculated using Mann’s “sparse” instrumental dataset, but the resultant sigmas and RE(calibration) statistics don’t match reported values.   In contrast, the Dirty Laundry residual dataset for the AD1820 step, which was calculated by Tim Osborn of CRU because Mann “couldn’t find” […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Also tagged , , | Comments (6)

Mann’s “Dirty Laundry”

Nov 7, 2023 – 2:26 PM

As the date approached for the Mann-Steyn/Simberg libel trial, I’ve been reviewing my files on MBH98 and MBH99. It’s about 15 years since I last looked at these issues.  While revisiting these issues, I re-examined some data associated with the notorious “dirty laundry” Climategate email (link)  – excerpt shown at right – that turns out […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Also tagged , , , | Comments (21)

The RE Benchmark of 0

Apr 17, 2008 – 1:02 PM

In MM2005a,b,c, we observed that the RE statistic had no theoretical distribution. We noted that MBH had purported to establish a benchmark by simulations using AR1 red noise series with AR1=0.2, yielding a RE benchmark of 0. We originally observed that high RE statistics could be obtained from PC operations on red noise in MM2005a […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Wahl and Ammann | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (44)

Ross McKitrick on Mann et al 2007

Nov 22, 2007 – 11:43 AM

Ross McKitrick writes: First, on page 15, they say: This result (as well as the separate study by Wahl and Ammann [2007]) thus refutes the previously made claim by MM05 that the features of the MBH98 reconstruction are somehow an artifact arising from the use of PC summaries to represent proxy data. Well, if we […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Mann et al 2007 | Also tagged , | Comments (6)

Calibration RE

Jul 4, 2006 – 5:36 AM

The NAS Panel notes the following about several statistics used in proxy studies: If are the predictions from a linear regression of on the proxies, and the period of interest is the calibration period, then RE, CE, and are all equal. Here’s a result about MBH methods (and applicable to related methods with re-scaling) that […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Statistics | Also tagged | Comments (10)

The RE Benchmark in A&W

Mar 19, 2006 – 2:23 PM

There’s an interesting irony in the GRL rejection of the Ammann & Wahl Comment and it will be interesting to see how this gets handled. It turns out that the A&W Climatic Change depends on their GRL submission for their test of statistical significance for the RE statistic. So even though the GRL referee thought […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Wahl and Ammann | Also tagged , , | Comments (309)