A guest post by Nicholas Lewis
In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. In Part 2 I dealt with poor Bayesian probabilistic estimation and summarized the state of observational, instrumental period warming based climate sensitivity estimation. In this third and final part I discuss arguments that estimates from that approach are biased low, and that GCM simulations imply ECS is higher, partly because in GCMs effective climate sensitivity increases over time. I’ve incorporated one new slide here to help explain this issue.