Wilson et al 2016, like D’Arrigo et al 2006, includes a ‘Polar Urals’ chronology as one of its components. Tree ring chronologies from Polar Urals and Yamal have long been a contentious issue at Climate Audit, dating back to the earliest days (see tags Yamal, Polar Urals).
Whereas the D’Arrigo et al 2006 version had one of the biggest blades in the entire D’Arrigo et al 2006 portfolio (ending at nearly 4 sigma, with the smooth at 2.5 sigma), the new version, while slightly elevated in the 20th century, remains under 1 sigma.
Figure 1. ‘Polar Urals’ chronologies (scaled to SD Units): top- from D’Arrigo et al 2006 (RCS); bottom – Wilson et al 2014. The top series is actually the Yamal chronology (Briffa, 2000), while the bottom series is a Polar Urals MXD version from Briffa et al (2013).
In today’s post, I’ll first discuss the dramatic reduction in the blade of the ‘Polar Urals’ chronology from D’Arrigo et al 2006 to Wilson et al 2016 (which uses a variation of the Polar Urals MXD chronology from Briffa et al 2013). This doesn’t take long to explain.
I’ll then use the rest of the post to discuss the bewildering thicket of adjustments to the Polar Urals MXD chronology in Briffa et al 2013. I would be astonished if any practising paleoclimatologist (including the lead author of Wilson et al 2016) has ever made any attempt to figure out what Briffa (or more likely, Melvin actually did) in Briffa et al 2013. I doubt that the editor and peer reviewers did either. Continue reading