Trouet et 2009 posit a positive NAO as the “explanation” of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, pausing only briefly to ask what might have caused a centuries long (“temporally pervasive”) positive NAO, falling back on an arm-waving attribution to a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: The persistently strong winter MCA NAO and its weakening during the […]
I’ve been foraging through ICOADS SST data for the past week and have a number of posts in progress. Here’s a diagram that I’m planning to do several comments on. It shows information on the provenance of ICOADS data between 1850, the start of the HadCRU SST record, and the present. It is very obvious […]
Folland has been the leading IPCC authority on bucket adjustments. Folland et al 1993 carries out a comparison from early 1980s measurements of (presumably predominantly insulated) bucket and non-bucket measurements, arguing that the difference was about 0.08 (less than 0.12-0.18 suggested in 2006 by Kent and Kaplan. They reported a puzzling situation in the Gulf […]
Uninsulated Buckets A CA reader emailed me, observing that there may be relevant differences in insulated and uninsulated buckets in the post-World War 2 period, which could easily affect adjustment schedules. This makes a lot of sense to me and might reconcile a few puzzles and opening others. Let’s say that the delta between engine […]
Thompson et al 2008, writing in Nature, assure their readers, the data before ~1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements Is there a shred of evidence to support this assertion? There is convincing evidence otherwise – evidence already reported here. […]
In an article in Nature today by Thompson, Kennedy, Wallace and Phil Jones claim: Here we call attention to a previously overlooked discontinuity in the record at 1945, Well, folks, the discontinuity may have been overlooked by Hadley Center, CRU, NOAA and NASA and by the stadiums of IPCC peer reviewers, but it wasn’t overlooked […]
We’ve heard a lot recently from RC about whether solar can account for temperature variations in the 20th century. While my primary interest in these ruminations is the possibility of pinning down a set of standards by which they agree that a study is “bad” – since it’s hard for me to determine any sins […]
In browsing AR4 chapter 3, I encountered something that seems very strange in Table 3.2 which reports trends and trend significance for a variety of prominent temperature series (HAdCRU, HadSST, CRUTem). The caption states: The Durbin Watson D-statistic (not shown) for the residuals, after allowing for first-order serial correlation, never indicates significant positive serial correlation. […]
One of the Team’s more adventurous assumptions in creating temperature histories is that there was an abrupt and universal change in SST measurement methods away from buckets to engine inlets in 1941, coinciding with the U.S. entry into World War II. As a result, Folland et al introduced an abrupt adjustment of 0.3 deg C […]
Here is a remarkable graphic from a new publication, Kent et al 2007, showing the distribution of SST measurements between buckets and engine inlets from 1970 on. I think that this evidence has great significance for the Folland and Parker SST adjustment, which is one of the most fundamental Team adjustments. I’ll discuss this more […]
