The blog world is jump starting discussion of 2008 annual temperatures. Yesterday at 1:56 pm Eastern, NASA employee Gavin Schmidt and climate modeler, purely in his “private” capacity, posted an article arguing that the results were consistent with climate models – an activity that lesser minds might think relates to his employment. Lucia commented here, […]
I’d like to finish off our discussion of the supposed “strong visible anticorrelation” between the Q5 (Oman) and D1 (Socotra) speleothems (as supposedly evidenced in Figure 9), before discussing millennial issues. Again, I preface these remarks by saying that there is much of interest in speleothems and I’m just discussing one statistical issue here that […]
Ross and I submitted a comment on Mann et al 2008 on Dec 8, 2008 within the 3 month time period for comments permitted by PNAS. The comment, pursuant to PNAS rules, was less than 250 words and had 5 (or less) references (one of which was Mann et al 2008 itself). The 250-word limit […]
David Smith writes: This is a minor item but it illustrates NOAA/NCDC’s need for better software to flag outliers – NCDC’s US Climate at a Glance webpage uses preliminary temperature anomaly data to create a monthly anomaly map: The mauve arrow points to an oddity – a blazing hot spot around Greenwood, MS, with a […]
Today I’m doing a short note on nonlinear equation solving of speleothem equations. As a preface to this, I’d like to comment that I’ve not made an overall post placing speleothems in context. And they have some very interesting properties as proxies that should not be lost sight of either in the context of posts […]
Today, I’m going to discuss a couple of points arising out of Fleitmann et al 2007, a discussion of speleothems in western Asia. Most notably, I’m going to discuss a “statistical” calculation made in this article, where the authors relied on a “visual” interpretation of noisy time series, which readily permit an alternative interpretation. (The […]
Question One of my follow-up FOI questions on Oct 31, 2008 about the gridded Briffa et al MXD data was the following: I examined Gridbox 7(132.5E 72.5N) in more detail. It contains one series: omoloyla. The gridded series (#7) has values from 1400-1991, but the underlying omoloyla chronology at ITRDB only goes from 1496 to […]
After years of effort, the chronologies of Briffa et al 2001 were recently made public, although the date on which these became public is itself clouded in mystery. [Update – this minor mystery is clarified: it looks like the data was unlocked on Sep 9, 2008, the day after my FOI request but before my […]
Mann reported a “significant” correlation of -0.5481829 between Dongge dO18 and gridcell temperature. Today I will report on exactly how Mann calculated this “significant” correlation. In keeping with recent requests, I will refrain from making any comments on this procedure, in the confident expectation that my critics will provide some commentary on what they think […]
In previous posts, I’ve observed my inability to replicate Mann’s verification statistics, the source code for which was not archived despite representations to the contrary in the original article. Mann has issued another uninformative correction notice (bearing the date Dec 1, 2008) which states: UPDATE 1 December 2008: Supplementary Figure S8a had a small error […]
Climate Audit 