As we’ve discussed before (and is well known), clouds are the greatest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Low-level (“boundary layer”) tropical clouds have been shown to be the largest source of inter-model difference among GCMs. Clouds have been known to be problematic for GCMs since at least the Charney Report in 1979. Given the […]
NOAA is first of the three main indices to be off the mark with June 2009 at 0.617 deg C, bouncing off the relatively low values of 2008. Given that the data is essentially common to HadISST, this is unsurprising. The difference between RSS and NOAA/HadCRU values is interesting in terms of the Big Red […]
Lucia reported on HadSST June 2009 values, which are out quickly and are surprisingly high given seemingly low RSS values. Lucia: it looks like the HadSST’s temperature anomalies may finally break their all time high temperature anomalies. The June anomaly of 0.50 C is a big jump up from 0.355C for May: The preliminary June […]
A few days ago, Jeff Id drew attention to a recent study profiled in sciencedaily which stated: Sea Ice At Lowest Level In 800 Years Near Greenland ScienceDaily (July 2, 2009) — New research, which reconstructs the extent of ice in the sea between Greenland and Svalbard from the 13th century to the present indicates […]
June 2009 monthly sea ice data is now out for NH and SH. (Continuing prior sea ice post here.) The global sea ice anomaly in June 2009 remained positive. Over the 1979-2009 period, there is zero trend in global sea ice anomaly, with a SH increasing trend offsetting a NH decreasing trend. June 2009 NH […]
Lucia was quick off the mark with RSS June results. RSS June was 0.075 deg C (reference 1979-1998). The graph shows somewhat of a decline from earlier in the year. In a joint statement, realclimate authors Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf and Eric Steig noted their disappointment with market performance. However, Rahmstorf observed that, […]
Over the past few days, we’ve discussed many peculiar aspects of Rahmstorf smoothing and centering: incorrect disclosure; seeming unawareness of what the smoothing did; unattractive properties of the triangular filter; the enhancement of “successful” prediction; opportunistic policy changes. It’s not though IPCC hadn’t turned its mind to smoothing. IPCC AR4 enunciated a sensible policy on […]
Pension funds all over the world – even university pension funds – are clamoring for the services of Rahmstorf and Associates as pension fund manager. No more Fidelity or Berkshire Hathaway. Yesterday’s men. Confused by the market? Worried about your investments? Stop your worrying. Rahmstorf and Associates’ portfolio managers will separate signal from noise using […]
I only have time to post a quick note on this interesting aspect of Rahmstorf’s diagram – how the centering of Rahmstorf et al 2007 interacts with Rahm-smoothing (now conceded by everyone except Rahmstorf to be a simple triangular filter of 2M-1 years) to enhance “successful” prediction. I noticed this effect when I did a […]
Here’s another model output oddity that I noticed from a plot and confirmed with a direct screensave. In January 2100, the SH values for an NCAR PCM run, as archived at KNMI, (expressed as an anomaly here) jumps 2.5 deg C from 0.3 deg C to 2.81 deg C, before relaxing to lower values over […]
Climate Audit 
RSS June – "Worse Than We Thought"
Lucia was quick off the mark with RSS June results. RSS June was 0.075 deg C (reference 1979-1998). The graph shows somewhat of a decline from earlier in the year. In a joint statement, realclimate authors Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf and Eric Steig noted their disappointment with market performance. However, Rahmstorf observed that, […]