Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

Mann and Rutherford [2002]: the CE Statistic

Barton’s question 7d asked MBH about other verification statistics. We’ve discussed their withholding of the R2 statistic here, here and here. In our GRL article, we also pointed out that their 15th century reconstruction also failed the CE statistic, another verification statistic used in dendroclimatic studies [Cook et al, 1994]. Mann’s retort was that climatologists […]

More on Gotland

Esper considered three different methods of standardizing tree ring widths and concluded: For the Gotland TRW data, the resulting three different chronologies do behave differently in the late 19th and 20th centuries. Such difference would influence one’s interpretation of the climate history represented by these chronologies.

Hits

Sunday usually has about half the traffic of a weekday, but yesterday we had the most hits ever – over 6200. There were a lot of hits on Labor Day as well, so our audience may be changing a little. The hit count probably isn’t apples and apples to hits earlier in the year, since […]

Log-Normality in Gotland

I’ve recently shown some histograms for site ring widths and opined that they loooked somewhat gamma-ish. Louis Hissink said that they looked log-normal to him. Louis is right for Gotland anyway.

Esper's Gotland, Part 2

One of the reasons that I’m going to parse through Esper’s Gotland series is the virtual absence of archived RCS chronologies, despite the fact that they are sweeping the field in multiproxy studies. Continuing on with Esper’s Gotland series First (and this is not shown by Esper) is a simple histogram of RWM and MXD […]

Yang et al [2003]

An important new proxy series, which is one of only 8 in Mann and Jones [2003] and one of only 11 low-frequency proxies in Moberg et al [2003], is the Chinese composite of Yang et al [2003]. Unlike the Hockey Team, Prof. Yang promptly provided the underlying data set upon request. Here are some early […]

Plots of Gaspe and Polar Urals Data

Just as an experiment, I plotted up all the ring widths for the Gaspé and Polar Urals sites, with each core displaced a little. What I was thinking of the type of graph that you see in seismic surveys. The look is interesting, given how much weight is placed downstream on these data sets in […]

Gotland by Esper

One of the main Hockey Team studies is Esper et al 2002, which is published in Science and, naturally, no data is archived. Esper has not deigned to reply to any emails by me requesting data. Esper and coauthors have just published an article in QSR leading with a discussion of the Mann controversy. I’m […]

Materials Complaint re Moberg et al [2005]

As a result of refusals by Moberg, Sonchkin and Lauritzen, I’ve filed a Materials Complaint with Nature, which will hopefully result in the delivery of the data in less than geological time. In an email to me concerning a possible one year misdating of U.S. bristlecones, Moberg said that their "reconstruction does not contain any […]

Replication Policy

We get considerable criticism from paleoclimate scientists that complying with requests for data and methods sufficient to permit replication is much too onerous and distracts them from "real work". However, the problem is not our request, but that any request should be necessary in the first place. In my opinion, a replication package should have […]