UC writes in that there’s another Mannian problem: And GRL08 ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/MannGRL08.pdf ) is the prologue. Tried this new smoother ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/smoothing08/lowpassadaptive.m ) with HadCRUT monthly and f=0.0104, [smoothedbest,w0,w1,w2,msebest] = lowpassadaptive(HadM, 0.0104); got this figure, But the weights are [w0 w1 w2] ans = 0.4100 0 0.5500 Surprisingly, this does not agree with the text, […]
I’m back from Italy and just wrote a post summarizing the trip. Unfortunately the blog crashed when I went to post it and I’ll have to re-write the post. Anyhow, we had a great trip. I see that Mann et al have a welcome-home present for us. I see that there are press releases announcing […]
Continuation of Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions.
Continuation of Sea Ice Stretch Run #2.
It’s late summer (or late winter in the SH) so it must be time to upgrade the blog to the latest and greatest WordPress edition. (why do I offer to do this? I must be mad) Climate Audit is current on a lowly version 2.2.1 and the latest version is 2.6.1 Much to my surprise, […]
In my post December 1986, I presented a histogram showing the GISS estimate of December 1986 minus the actual for GHCN stations in Europe and Russia. As noted, GISS under-estimated December 1986 for this region by a greater than 2 to 1 margin. The result was, when GISS combined multiple records for a single station, […]
In case any of you have been wondering about my radio silence, I’m currently in Erice, Sicily, where I’ll be participating in an Erice seminar, which I was re-working most of last week. We left on Sat night and it takes a while to get here. We stopped in Palermo on the way. My topic […]
July monthly seaice data from NSICD is shown below. I have no idea how this reconciles to the JAXA versions that we’ve been following or to the daily binaries. Both extent and area are shown. The SH anomaly has declined markedly with SH winter and the GLB anomaly is slightly negative.
Briffa 2000 is one of the canonical “independent” reconstructions in the IPCC AR4 spaghetti graph, the Wikipedia spaghetti graph and similars. I’ve discussed it in the past, but I’m going to revisit this in light of the new information on Tornetrask and I’m going to run Brown’s inconsistency statistic on it. Briffa used 7 series: […]
David Stockwell has posted up an analysis of the CSIRO Drought Report, using the data grudgingly made public by CSIRO after public pressure. Key claims of the CSIRO report do not pass obvious statistical test for “significance”. Please visit David at his blog.
Climate Audit 