Mann, Wahl, Ammann, Ritson, Ramsdorff are all dining out on the fact that von Storch et al 2004 did not implement a detrending step in their implementation of MBH98. (Although given that Mann would not be "intimidated" into releasing his algorithm and cited Zorita et al 2003 to us as evidence that people could implement […]
I hope that you are following the lively discussion about Burger and Cubasch at Climates of the Past here , where Mann aka Anonymous Referee #2 is carrying on in a quite extraodinary way. I’ll probably try to weigh in over there at some point. The dialogue has exploded fairly quickly and I’ve collated some […]
RegEM has reared its ugly head again in Mann’s review of Burger and Cubasch.
There is another terrific article by Bürger and Cubasch posted up here . I’ve just looked at for a few minutes so far and it will take time to fully digest, but one can tell right away that it is a very interesting and stimulating article. Gerd Bürger notified me of it and I therefore […]
(John A): On Jerry Pournelle’s fascinating weblog, a poster has mentioned Steve McIntyre’s expanded horizons into the world of multiproxy studies and the revealing reply to the NAS Panel by D’Arrigo in praise of cherrypicking proxies because "that’s what you have to do if you want to make cherry pie". Jerry responds: The basis assumption […]
The NAS Panel claimed that MBH98 was the "first systematic" multiproxy study. It wasn’t; it didn’t even claim to be, citing Bradley and Jones 1993 and several other studies of the same vintage as predecessors. Crowley was a peer reviewer for the NAS panel, who presumably relied on him to catch this sort of mis-step. […]
Von Storch, Zorita and Gonzalez-Raucen have issued the following statement on the NAS Panel Report (link):
The early rumors on the NAS Panel was that it was “two handed” -on the one hand,…, on the other hand, … with something for everyone. I’d characterize it more as schizophrenic. It’s got two completely distinct personalities. On the one hand, they pretty much concede that every criticism of MBH is correct. They disown […]
A few days ago, I mentioned that I thought that Bürger et al 2006, while recognizing the linear relationship between MBH proxies and their RPCs, had incorrectly formulated the form of the relationship as the form of the linear relationship was inconsistent with my own derivation, which I had cross-checked and verified against source code […]
Right now, I’m working on two main projects where I intend to produce papers for journals: one is on the non-robustness of the “other” HS studies; the other is on MBH98 multivariate methods. The latter topic is somewhat “in the news” with the two Bürger articles and with the exchange at Science between VZ and […]
By Stephen McIntyre
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Also posted in Multivariate, Replication, Statistics
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Tagged algebra, borga, magnus, multivariate, orthogonal, overfit, pls, stone, stone and brooks
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