Otto-Bliesner asked me how I would do a reconstruction. As I’ve said on other occasions, I said that I didn’t know. I’m really reluctant to just apple-pick some series but it’s prbably worthwhile showing that you can pick apples as well as cherries. More constructively, I think that there are some approaches that look better […]
Back to reporting on our presentation to the NAS panel, after which I’ll report on Mann. We presented last in the day, immediately following von Storch. Hughes and Mann presented on Friday morning. We gave them a long written presentation, and touched the high points in our PPT, also providing them with a CD of […]
D’Arrigo presented their new study. I went over and introduced myself and said that I thought that their new study was much better than Osborn and Briffa and that it was too bad that they hadn’t received the same publicity. She said – Well, I guess that’s a compliment of sorts. I was trying to […]
I’ve got to get back to the NAS presentation and this will be my last post on Polar Urals and Yamal for a while, but it is all quite delicious. Anyway, here is a spaghetti graph of 3 Polar Urals results – including the results from Esper et al [2002] just disclosed by Science, all […]
It’s interesting that the Hockey Team seems to be able to make spaghetti graphs of world temperature history when they can’t even arrive at a spaghetti graph for the Polar Urals. I posted up the difference between Briffa’s Yamal substitution and the updated Polar Urals ring widths. But before either one, there was Briffa’s Polar […]
By Stephen McIntyre
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Also posted in Briffa, Esper et al 2002, Jones et al 1998, Multiproxy Studies, Yamal and Urals
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Tagged briffa, briffa_1995, briffa_2000, Esper, esper_2002, urals, Yamal
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Here’s another look at Polar Urals using a “grass plot” showing cumulative ring width for individual trees against time. The trees plotted in black are from the original archive (russ021) and the ones plotted in red are form the 1998 update (russ176). This gives a little different viewpoint on variance stabilization issues. First, one of […]
Rob Wilson has written in sharply criticizing me (Yamal Substitution #3) for a lack of a balanced presentation on the Yamal substitution, and, in particular, for not acknowledging the "clear statistical reasons (related to variance changes through time)" that he had provided me offline for why D’Arrigo et al 2006 made the Yamal substitution. Also […]
As I’ve mentioned before, you have to really watch the pea under the thimble whenever Briffa is presenting a series. I showed before how the post-1960 decline in MXD reconstructions was simply excised from the record and carried forward into the IPCC spaghetti graph where the overlay of colors made the detection virtually impossible to […]
The continued negligence of the major journals in ensuring that paleoclimate authors archive data in accordance with journal policies is very frustrating and, as previously noted, has reared its ugly head once again with Osborn and Briffa. I have had little luck in the past with Science (except for the Kilimanjaro sample dO18 data) but […]
I’ve talked recently about the phenomenon of cherry picking tree ring chronologies with upticks in the small-subset (10-20) compilations used in typical Hockey Team multiproxy studies (e.g. Jones et al 1998; Crowley and Lowery 2000, etc., most recently Osborn and Briffa, 2006; and to a slight lesser extent D’Arrigo et al, 2006 (where there was […]
Climate Audit 