Weblog update imminent

Nov 14, 2006 – 2:07 PM

Steve has received yet another note about the vulnerability of our software from the webhost and somehow we are being used as a spam relay of some kind. So I’m going to update the software after first making sure I’ve got a good backup or three.

So if CA disappears or looks peculiar, try not to fret. It will be back shortly. I will also be experimentally changing the look of the blog for future development reasons.

Update: I’m going to have to cut access to the database for a few seconds and stop all plug-ins. This will mean either a) it looks like we’ve gone off air and b) we’re under attack by gremlins. Neither will be true (this time anyway)

By John A | Posted in General | Comments (183)

Annals of Glaciology 43 Online

Nov 12, 2006 – 12:55 PM

The 2005 volume is online here although earlier issues seem to be pay-as-you-play. It has many interesting articles, including ones on Puruogangri and tropical glaciers. Enjoy.

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in General | Comments (10)

"The Holocene" Online

Nov 11, 2006 – 1:02 PM

here

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in General | Comments (15)

Lallemand Fjord, Antarctica

Nov 10, 2006 – 4:22 PM

In my search for high-resolution ocean sediment records, I stumbled across an interesting 1995 article by Domack et al (Domack of the Larsen Ice Shelf) discussing cores on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula which were dated over the last 2000 years. Continue reading →

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Antarctica, Medieval, Ocean sediment | Comments (4)

Juckes and 99.98% Significance

Nov 10, 2006 – 1:39 PM

A few days ago, I showed that a trivial variation to the Moberg CVM reconstruction led to a very different medieval-modern relationship. Juckes has reported that the Moberg CVM reconstruction is "99.98% significant" – not quite the most significant in a milllll-yun years, but VERY, VERY significant. I thought it would be interesting to see if my variation was also significant and, if so, ponder what that meant for these calculations. Continue reading →

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Juckes et al 2006 | Tagged , | Comments (186)

2 mm Ocean Sediment Studies

Nov 10, 2006 – 6:55 AM

Lloyd Keigwin’s Sargasso Sea study was done using 1 cm core intervals; the Arabian Sea RC2730 percentage G bulloides was calculated using 2 mm core intervals (although slower sedimentation meant that the time intervals were mitigated somewhat.) see http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=898 . G bulloides percentage is interesting a measure of upwelling, but isn’t a proxy for SST. I’m looking for ocean sediment studies done at 2 mm or greater resolution. If anybody notices one, could you please point it out.

Khim et al 2002, Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, Quaternary Research 58, 234-245 (2002) http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=105

Core A9-EB2. Sedimentation rate 87 cm/1000 yr. Magnetics scanned at 1-cm intervals. Resolution ~12 years.

Alicia Newton, Robert Thunell, and Lowell Stott, 2006. Climate and hydrographic variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last millennium. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L19710, doi:10.1029/2006GL027234, 2006 http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=858

MD9821-60 (1998) was collected was collected at 5 12.07 S, 117 29.20 E from a water depth of 1185 m. well above the present-day lysocline on. Although the uppermost sediments representing roughly the last 150 years were lost during the coring process, the average Holocene sedimentation rate at this location is well over 100 cm per 1,000 years. The core was sampled continuously at 1 cm intervals, providing a time resolution of less than 10 years.

Poore et al, 2003. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records. PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, 18 1048, doi:10.1029/2002PA000868, 2003. url

RC 12-10 from the western GOM and Gyre 97-6 PC20 from the Louisiana continental slope in the northern GOM (Figure 1). RC12-10: accumulation rate 20 cm/kyr; 1- 2 cm intervals; resolution 50-100 years; top 10 cm crumbled. Gyre 97-6 PC20: accumulation 20 cm/kyr; a cm intervals; resolution 50 years.

Poore, R.Z., T. M. Quinn, and S. Verardo, 2004. Century-scale movement of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence
Zone linked to solar variability. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L12214, doi:10.1029/2004GL019940, 2004

MD02 2553) taken from the Pigmy Basin on the continental slope of the northern GOM in the summer of 2002. Sediment samples at 1 cm. REsolution ~30 years.

R.Z. Poore, M.J. Pavich and H.D. Grissino-Mayer 2005. Record of the North American southwest monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores, Geology 2005 url

MD02-2553 and RC 12-10

Julie N Richey, Richard Z Poore, Benjamin P Flower, Terrence M Quinn, A 1400-year multi-proxy record of climate variability from the Northern Gulf of Mexico url

Pigmy Basin, Gulf of Mexico PBBC-1. sample interval 0.5 cm; sedimentation rate 45 cm/1000 years; resolution 12 years

Rein et al, 2005. “El Nino variability off Peru during the last 20,000 years”‘?, Paleoceanography 20,2005 Data

SO147-106KL (80 km off Lima/Peru;12030S, 7739.80W, 184 m water depth, Figure. Dating model with variable resolution. About 2 years in past millennium

von Rad et al, 1999. A 5000-yr Record of Climate Change in Varved Sediments from the Oxygen Minimum Zone off Pakistan, Northeastern Arabian Sea, Quaternary Research 51, 39″€œ53 (1999)

SO 90-56 KA (from box core SO 90-39KG) taken from the center of the OMZ west of Karachi (24° 509N, 65° 559E; water depth: 695 m). sedimentation rate 1.2-1.5 mm/year. Annual resolution by varve counting.

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Ocean sediment, Proxies | Comments (9)

Juckes and the Indigirka River Alter Ego

Nov 9, 2006 – 10:02 AM

You have to get up pretty early in the morning to surprise me with one of these millennial proxy series. But even I got a big surprise when I decided to investigate Juckes statement "Concerning the Indigirka data, the key phrase is “they are unpublished data”; and his challenge in 894#13:

But seriously, if you can stop posting extended discussion of your problems coming to grips with trivia long enough to say anything serious, do you have any authorative information about the Indigirka data in your possession which would justify its use as a proxy? If so I think it would be really useful if you could write it up and get it published."

Continue reading →

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Juckes et al 2006 | Tagged , | Comments (10)

New Emanuel Presentation

Nov 8, 2006 – 9:09 PM

Howard Wiseman sends in:

I attach a link to Dr. Kerry Emanuel’s recent powerpoint presentation at the Southern New England Weather Conference which focuses on TC activity in the Atlantic. The download is a bit slow, and the presentation is pretty familiar ground. Emanuel’s conclusions are presented with breathless inevitability (surprise). No comments on the 2006 Atlantic TC season that wasn’t, although there might have been at the live presentation which I did not attend.

Kerry Emanuel on Global Warming and Hurricanes

And now, for your viewing pleasure, the link to Joe D’Aleo (“‘?Dr. Dewpoint”‘?). Some nice graphs and graphics here that are a pretty good counterpoint to the Warmanistas.


Joe D’Aleo: Climate Change

Last but certainly not least, RC’s take on the EPICA study and DO events and ocean circulation flips. Buried in there is an admission by Eric Steig of the possibility of a solar cycle driving a 1470 year long climate regularity (but not provable since the Holecene) and expressions of doubt and curiosity. Perhaps the penny has dropped on bad science??

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Hurricane, News and Commentary | Comments (85)

Juckes and the Divergence Problem

Nov 8, 2006 – 11:12 AM

Juckes discusses the Divergence Problem as follows:

Particular concerns have been raised about … the high latitude Eurasian trees (which have and anomalously low growth anomaly in the late 20th century — Tornetraesk, Fennoscandia, Yamal, Northern Urals in Table 1)

No one has ever said that Yamal has an anomalously low growth anomaly in the late 20th century. Or the Northern Urals. Or for that matter, Tornaetrask or Fennoscandia – which are the same site, just different names.

What critics have observed and Juckes doesn’t discuss is that the average of 387 “temperature-sensitive” sites goes down in the last half of the 20th century (the Divergence Problem). But within the population of 387 sites, you can find some that go up. And surprise, surprise, the Team chooses them over and over. Tornetrask is used in every study. Juckes has taken cherry picking to a new height by even using it twice (Tornetrask and Fennoscandia, well disguised by the use of different lat/longs.)

Update: To illustrate the “anomalously low growth” in Briffa’s Yamal chronology, look at the Figure below from Briffa (2000) showing Briffa’s turbocharged Yamal chronology. I’ve posted lots on it.

Since Juckes has elected to use the “old” chronologies, it’s worth re-visiting an earlier post on how Briffa dealt with the divergence problem in the Tornetrask MXD chronology which is one of the two Tornetrask chronologies used by Juckes. It’s discussed here over a year ago. It contains an explanation of the following diagram:

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Divergence, Jones et al 1998 | Tagged , | Comments (9)

Juckes and the Sargasso Sea

Nov 8, 2006 – 10:22 AM

Keigwin’s Sargasso Sea temperature reconstruction, used in Moberg et al 2005, was de-selected by Juckes in what he represented to be the Moberg CVM composite and in making the Union composite (although he managed to use Tornetrask twice ?!? under different names). Although he de-selected the Sargasso Sea temperature reconstruction, he used Moberg’s Arabian Sea percentage G bulloides – a HS shaped proxy discussed here on a number of occasions – in both the Moberg CVM and the “Union” composite.

Previously, I reported that a Moberg CVM using the Sargasso Sea proxy instead of the Arabian Sea G bulloides series and Indigirka instead of Yamal led to a very different result – higher MWP than modern.

Juckes did not report that he had de-selected any Moberg proxies and did not identify which proxies were de-selected. When confronted with the Sargasso Sea de-selection, he replied that the proxy ended in 1925, a point which he said that he confirmed with the originator (Lloyd Keigwin). It sort of sounds like a plausible reason, but I thought that I’d follow up.

There are a couple of issues that I had in mind: (1) on its face, Keigwin’s Sargasso Sea proxy is a vastly more valid proxy for SST than G bulloides percentage – which is said by the authors to be a proxy for wind speed; is highly non-normal in distribution with G bulloides counter-intuitively being a cold water foraminifera, demonstrating coldwater upwelling rather than warm SSTs; (2) since both are box cores, I wondered why there would be material differences in the end dates of the series – is this an artifact? (3) are there modern benchmarks for the Keigwin series? Continue reading →

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Juckes et al 2006, Medieval, Ocean sediment | Tagged , , , | Comments (16)