I hope that you are following the lively discussion about Burger and Cubasch at Climates of the Past here , where Mann aka Anonymous Referee #2 is carrying on in a quite extraodinary way. I’ll probably try to weigh in over there at some point. The dialogue has exploded fairly quickly and I’ve collated some […]
RegEM has reared its ugly head again in Mann’s review of Burger and Cubasch.
Thompson et al said that "their [Thompson’s four Tibetan ice core] dO18 histories or proxy temperature records, are remarkably similar at lower frequencies". They are not just similar – they are "remarkably similar" with correlations as high as one milllll-ion.
There’s a short article “Model verification and documentaiton are needed” in Eos, June 20, 2006, by a geologist, I. Sasowsky, :calling for reviewers to ensure that computer methods are properly documented and archived as part of the review process. Sasowsky notes that prior studies have documented frequent “surprises” and “fundemental errors” in numerical modeling studies, […]
There’s a new Lonnie Thompson article online at PNAS (thanks to Steve Bloom for reference). It has some "supporting data" – "supporting data to Thompson means only digital versions of the graphics, rather than detailed archives such as Majewski provided for the Everest ice core. Just to annoy anyone who was actually interested in the […]
Everybody seems to be so full of advice on how I should do things. OK, I have a question. Ross and I are writing an op ed about the NAS Panel. It’s hard to convey to a lay audience what a comedown it is for the NAS Panel to say that it is merely the […]
Nature has an article on the top 50 science blogs taken from Technorati in which we do not occur. We have not registered at Technorati and am doing so now. The registration process requires that you do a post like this and insert the following in a message Technorati Profile I’m not entirely sure where […]
Nature has two online articles pertaining to the NAS Panel – one about the NAS Panel primarily relying on the press conference and another mentioning a prospective new NAS investigation into the data access problems left untouched by the past panel. The Nature reporter asked an interesting question at the press conference. I’ve provided a […]
Von Storch et al 2004 advocated using climate models to generate pseudoproxies to test the properties of proposed multivariate methods. Hardly unreasonable. I might argue that these are long-winded ways of generating proxy series with certain kinds of temporal and spatial covariance structures, but there’s much to be said for testing methods on some standard […]
By Stephen McIntyre
|
Posted in Multivariate, RegEM
|
Tagged mixed effects, multivariate, nlme, overfitting, pseudoproxy, r2, random effects, ridge, stone, stone and brooks, storch, von storch, zorita
|
The review of referee #2 for Bürger and Cubasch’s article in Climates of the Past is posted up here . From the style, can anyone doubt that the anonymous reviewer was Mann himself? Take a read. The reviewer makes reference to this being the "2nd attempt by the authors to publish this flawed manuscript" – […]
Climate Audit 
Four Hunnnnnn-dred Years
Everybody seems to be so full of advice on how I should do things. OK, I have a question. Ross and I are writing an op ed about the NAS Panel. It’s hard to convey to a lay audience what a comedown it is for the NAS Panel to say that it is merely the […]