Noticing that some spam comments were getting through, I decided to upgrade the Spam Karma plug-in to version 2.1 (from 2.0) and Bad-Behavior plug-in to 1.2.4 (from 1.1.4).
I’ve just noticed at the UCAR website that Ammann and Wahl now say that their CC re-submission was “provisionally accepted” on Dec 12. I have no information on what a "provisional acceptance" means, but it’s certainly a coincidence that the “provisional acceptance” occurred only 3 days after GRL agreed to send their previously rejected GRL […]
MBH98 and subsequent Mannian papers (MBH99, Rutherford et al , 2005) report briefly that they tested calibration residuals (not verification residuals) for normality and whiteness. These results are used to calculate confidence intervals. They do not use typical tests for whiteness e.g. Ljung-Box portmanteau statistic used not just in econometrics, but also in climate e.g. […]
Important stuff – 24 starts up again after the 2nd football game today. Last season ended with Jack Bauer’s death being faked in order to avoid an assassination attempt against Jack commissioned by the Vice President, acting as President while the President was incapacitated. Jack was also being sought by the Chinese for the attack […]
Some interesting comments in today’s Washington Post. Thanks to Roger Pielke for the reference. Roger pointed to the following: Rather, we need to recognize just how arduous and painstaking good science usually is and remind ourselves that data do not become dogma when published, but only when independently validated. Quite so. The article also pointed […]
While I fix the database after the upgrade, this post will hold the comments to posts I have to delete/recreate.
Continued from Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 OK, back to Ammann at AGU, his answer to the cross-validation R2 and my offer to him after our lunch. I think that asking for the cross-validation R2 was a good one-bite question at several different levels. First, it’s objective and any prevarications are noticeable to the […]
As I was writing up my note on Ammann at AGU, I re-read Mann’s reply to Barton, which mentions "ammann" no fewer than 11 times, usually as an "independent" scientist confirming his results. I’ve collected the mentions here, which make for some merry reading. Then I’ll discuss exactly how "independent" Caspar Michael Ammann (should we […]
I promise that I’ll get to Ammann’s answer. I’ve gotten sidetracked a little in documenting how Ammann’s unpublished work has been applied in the U.S. Congress. I’ll get to Mann’s letter to the House Energy and Commerce Committee in a minute. Meantime here is an interesting comment by Sir John Houghton to the testifying before […]
Remember the argument of Gavin and Rasmus that you shouldn’t use empirical temperature data to calibrate ARIMA models to provide null distributions, which they used against Cohn and Lins. I’m not sure that the argument is valid, but if it is, then they should not have selectively used it against Cohn and Lins, since Mann […]
Climate Audit 
11 Ammann Mentions in Mann's Barton Letter
As I was writing up my note on Ammann at AGU, I re-read Mann’s reply to Barton, which mentions "ammann" no fewer than 11 times, usually as an "independent" scientist confirming his results. I’ve collected the mentions here, which make for some merry reading. Then I’ll discuss exactly how "independent" Caspar Michael Ammann (should we […]