As a technique, CPS is little more than averaging and shouldn’t take more than a few lines of code. You standardize the network – one line; take an average – one more line; and then re-scale to match the mean and standard deviation of your target – one more line. (I’m not commenting here on […]
The North Atlantic hurricane season has nearly come to an end. As November progresses, the chance of another storm developing becomes smaller. Climatology (last 60 years) tells us that roughly 4 in 10 years see a November storm formation including 4 in 2005 (Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon), Hurricane Michelle (2001), Hurricane Lenny (1999), and Hurricane […]
We’ve noted that Briffa’s gridded MXD has high correlations to temperature, much higher than run-of-mill proxies. We’ve also noted that Mann (like Briffa) truncated this data at 1960 because of divergence. At the time that Mann et al 2008, the gridded MXD data was not available anywhere – Mann cited a webpage as follows: The […]
Santer et al 2008 (including realclimate’s Gavin Schmidt) sharply criticized Douglass et al for failing to properly consider the effect of autocorrelation of regression residuals on trend confidence intervals, which they described as a “methodological error”. The need to properly account for autocorrelation in confidence interval estimation is a fairly long-standing theme at CA and […]
Can anyone on the Team actually hit a target? A couple of days ago, I reported that Santer’s own method yielded failed t-tests on UAH when data up to 2008 (or even 2007) was used. I also reported that their SI (carried out in 2008) included a sensitivity test on their H1 hypothesis up to […]
Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]
Yes. Perhaps the first thing that I noticed about this article was the endpoint for analysis of 1999 – this seemed very odd. I mentioned that a Santer coauthor wrote to me, saying that the endpoint didn’t matter relative to the Douglass endpoint of 2004. That turns out to be true, but why would anyone […]
Excellent post here. Please comment at Lucia’s.
Has anyone tried to replicate Santer’s Table 1 and 3 results? It’s not as easy as it looks. What’s tricky is that the table looks pretty easy (and most of it is), but, if you assume that it’s done in a conventional way, you’ll get wrongfooted. In fairness, Santer provided an equation for the unconventional […]
In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]
Climate Audit 