Santer et al 2008 (including realclimate’s Gavin Schmidt) sharply criticized Douglass et al for failing to properly consider the effect of autocorrelation of regression residuals on trend confidence intervals, which they described as a “methodological error”. The need to properly account for autocorrelation in confidence interval estimation is a fairly long-standing theme at CA and […]
Can anyone on the Team actually hit a target? A couple of days ago, I reported that Santer’s own method yielded failed t-tests on UAH when data up to 2008 (or even 2007) was used. I also reported that their SI (carried out in 2008) included a sensitivity test on their H1 hypothesis up to […]
Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]
Yes. Perhaps the first thing that I noticed about this article was the endpoint for analysis of 1999 – this seemed very odd. I mentioned that a Santer coauthor wrote to me, saying that the endpoint didn’t matter relative to the Douglass endpoint of 2004. That turns out to be true, but why would anyone […]
Excellent post here. Please comment at Lucia’s.
Has anyone tried to replicate Santer’s Table 1 and 3 results? It’s not as easy as it looks. What’s tricky is that the table looks pretty easy (and most of it is), but, if you assume that it’s done in a conventional way, you’ll get wrongfooted. In fairness, Santer provided an equation for the unconventional […]
In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]
In many interesting comments, beaker, a welcome Bayesian commenter, has endorsed the Santer criticism of Douglass et al purporting to demonstrate inconsistency between models and data for tropical troposphere trends. (Prior post in sequence here) Santer et al proposed revised significance tests which, contrary to the Douglass results, did not yield results with statistical “significance”, […]
Today, I’m going to consider the handling in Mann et al 2008 of 17 proxy series developed by Peter Brown and Connie Woodhouse. Peter Brown is an anti-CA dendro who made a few posts here last year mainly on this thread. He introduced himself by saying “I have little patience for your blog. .. Typically […]
As a diversion from ploughing through Mann et al 2008, I took a look at Santer et al 2008 SI, a statistical analysis of tropospheric trends by 16 non-statisticians and, down the list, Doug Nychka, a statistician who, unfortunately, is no longer “independent”. It is the latest volley in a dispute between Santer and his […]
Climate Audit 