Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

Mann's New Divergence "Theory": A Smoothing Artifact

Over at realclimate, Mann has advocated a new “explanation” of the Divergence Problem raised by one of their readers in connection with IPCC AR4 Figure 6.10. Mann says that there is no Divergence Problem; he blames the reader for failing understand boundary constraints in smoothed series. Raising the Divergence Problem at realclimate was so blasphemous […]

Adjusting for the "Rural Cooling Effect"

I spent quite a bit of time today ploughing through USHCN station data, doing a lot of grunt work. For example, I spent time aking a concordance of 1221 USHCN identification numbers with GHCN id numbers (they aren’t the same) and I haven’t seen a concordance anywhere. Most of it could be done through matching […]

More ISO-2000 Weather Stations from Jones and Hansen

Anthony Watts writes: I decided I’d drop some more fun with entropy your way. Here is the USHCN station in Redding, CA # 425725920010 now operated by the US Forest Service at their HQ located at the Redding Airport it used to be operated by the NWS, but that WSFO closed in the mid 90’s. […]

New Light on Old Fudge

One of my first blog postings was on Briffa’s very first fudging (2011 update: the “Briffa bodge”) of a temperature reconstruction – his adjustment of the Tornetrask reconstruction – a reconstruction that is used in virtually every study. This was one of the first encounters with the Divergence Problem. Tornetrask MXD went down in the […]

Quality Control – Jones and Hansen Style

Anthony Watts has an excellent post showing the calibre of the quality control carried out by Phil Jones and Jim Hansen and the quality of Phil Jones’ “proof” that the “overall urban bias …is greater than 0.05 deg in the 20th century”. Marysville CA (425745000030), GISS population 12,000, is in the USHCN network and is […]

The Mysterious Taylor Dome Borehole

Last year, one of the first things that puzzled me about the NAS panel report was the basis for their conclusion that there was no MWP in Antarctica. At the press conference, at about minute 60, North said: there is evidence of warmth in the record in the MWP. But as Bradley and Diaz a […]

Help UCAR Find the Lost Cities of Chile

There’s something romantic about lost civilizations. Archaeologists have ventured all over the world looking for lost civilizations. Little did they know that some lost civilizations report their weather to UCAR, including the mysterious country of Chile whose existence has long been suspected. Here at last is conclusive evidence that the lost country of Chile exists, […]

Gajewski, Mann and Warm Ice Age Arizona

Konrad Gajewski of the University of Ottawa wrote a letter to the Hill Times saying: Further, in a report published this year in The Journal of Geophysical Research, we showed that the general trend was correct, using a completely different methodology and data-source and that the current warming is unusual with respect to the past […]

Cunning IPCC Bureaucrats

IPCC has a policy requiring them to make all expert and government review comments available under the following terms: All written expert, and government review comments will be made available to reviewers on request during the review process and will be retained in an open archive in a location determined by the IPCC Secretariat on […]

Wilson Spaghetti Graph

I’ve plotted up a version of the series in the Wilson spaghetti graph, together with URLs and a script from which original data for most of the series in the Wilson spaghetti graph can be downloaded together with read scripts. Wilson used a couple of grey versions (Hegerl, Juckes) although there are online versions of […]