The early rumors on the NAS Panel was that it was “two handed” -on the one hand,…, on the other hand, … with something for everyone. I’d characterize it more as schizophrenic. It’s got two completely distinct personalities. On the one hand, they pretty much concede that every criticism of MBH is correct. They disown […]
The NAS Panel is scheduled to issue its report, "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years" at 11 a.m. on Thursday. I suspect that many people would expect me to be worried about what the panel will say. Actually, I’m not worried in the slightest. Based on presentations to the panel, NAS is in […]
David Stockwell has an interesting post on the lack of public archiving of bird flu sequences, drawing on a longer post by Declan Butler. So apparently, noone is opposed to depositing the sequences in Genbank immediately, but noone is taking the decision to do so. In the Nature editorial, Dreams of flu data we argued: […]
Ou (J Clim 2001), " Possible Bounds on the Earth’s Surface Temperature" is an attempt to explain why a climate “not unlike the present-day one has prevailed on the earth since its early history when the sun was considerably dimmer”, a question that Lee was musing about and, IMHO, an interesting question. The tricky thing […]
A few days ago, I mentioned that I thought that Bürger et al 2006, while recognizing the linear relationship between MBH proxies and their RPCs, had incorrectly formulated the form of the relationship as the form of the linear relationship was inconsistent with my own derivation, which I had cross-checked and verified against source code […]
John A thought that it would be worthwhile to draw attention to some articles on scientific reaction to Al Gore’s film "An Inconvenient Truth". and started this post. I have kept his links and quotations, but otherwise re-written this post. I haven’t seen Al Gore’s film and may comment on it myself later. I suspect […]
Right now, I’m working on two main projects where I intend to produce papers for journals: one is on the non-robustness of the “other” HS studies; the other is on MBH98 multivariate methods. The latter topic is somewhat “in the news” with the two Bürger articles and with the exchange at Science between VZ and […]
Posted in MBH98, Multivariate, Replication, Statistics
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Tagged algebra, borga, magnus, multivariate, orthogonal, overfit, pls, stone, stone and brooks
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8 new tree ring measurement data sets have archived this week at WDCP in northern Alberta by Meko. The sites are around 58N, 111W , well to the northeast of the Jasper site (52N, 117W) which is used in nearly all the multiproxy studies. I did a “standard” type chronology fitting negative exponential curves by […]
Eduardo Zorita sent me an interesting paper (Pollissar et al 2006, Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes) hot off the press on June 1, 2006, co-authored by Bradley, which reported: The intersection of the ELA [equilibrium line altitude] and pollen estimates indicate that during the LIA the Venezuelan Andes were […]
Climate Audit 
A few inconvenient truths
John A thought that it would be worthwhile to draw attention to some articles on scientific reaction to Al Gore’s film "An Inconvenient Truth". and started this post. I have kept his links and quotations, but otherwise re-written this post. I haven’t seen Al Gore’s film and may comment on it myself later. I suspect […]