So far there have been 4 Comments submitted to GRL on our paper, including Wahl and Amman which is 4th in the queue, plus the WA submission to Climatic Change. Se we’re being noticed. The GRL format for a Comment is 50% of the length of the original article, with an equal length allocated to […]
Wahl and Amman code is designed for Unix. I’ve done the tweaks for Windows, doing tweaks for both the masterfile (for their base case) and for the file of directories. There might be some simpler way of doing the tweaks, but this version doesn’t crash on my machine. This should transport OK to other machines. […]
Here are some first thoughts. So far I don’t see anything in W-A that affects any of our results. Indeed, I expect that W-A is going to be very positive for this debate, as the points at issue are going to be narrowed sufficiently closely that any people actually interested in the results (as opposed […]
Just got back from Washington a few minutes ago (I think that the presentations went very well) and saw this press release from Wahl and Amman (link). The points appear to be ones that have been posted up at realclimate before, which we’ve fully considered and, in my opinion, don’t lay a glove on our […]
Ross McKitrick and I will be making two presentations in Washington on May 11 sponsored by Cooler Heads Coalition/George Marshall Institute: 12.20 at the National Press Club and 3 pm somewhere on Capitol Hill.
At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]
I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard error (“sigma”) of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps. Calculated from confidence intervals for MBH98 reconstruction at NOAA archive here.
Here are some thoughts from 70 years ago from the eminent statistician, R.A. Fisher, from the “Design of Experiments”. There’s a nice dig about “heavyweight authorities”.
Roger Pielke at Prometheus [archive] as some kind words for my comments on the IPCC “editing” of the Briffa MXD series in their spaghetti graph. Good for Chris Mooney and good for Climate Audit. Such close attention can help both the IPCC and NASA realize that people are paying attention to their use of information […]
The “Index of Leading Environmental Indicators 2005” of the Pacific Research Institute says the following: “The “hockey-stick” graph, believed to be one of the leading indicators of global warming, is now being called “rubbish.” Scientists have shown that the graph’s underlying equation would generate the same result for any series of random numbers." In another […]
Climate Audit 
Upcoming Washington Trip
Ross McKitrick and I will be making two presentations in Washington on May 11 sponsored by Cooler Heads Coalition/George Marshall Institute: 12.20 at the National Press Club and 3 pm somewhere on Capitol Hill.