I’m working on a long note, but probably a short interim note will make some sense. From the point of view of simply advancing our particular take on the MBH98 mess, as between Wahl et al and von Storch et al, there are pros and cons to us for either side being right. So I’d […]
Wahl, Ritson and Ammann, the authors of two rejected comments on MM05 to GRL – see here and here for our Replies to the rejected comments – have joined forces and pulished a critical comment on Von Storch et al [2004] in Science, to which von Storch et al have issued a Reply. realclimate has […]
Update: the following does not explain the Caramilk secret of MBH99 confidence intervals, which remains unexplained and mysterious. End Update. OK, Mann starts with a sigma obtained from the standard errors in the calibration period from his hugely overfitted model. He uses this in MBH98. In MBH99, recognizing the autocorrelation in the residuals, he adjusts […]
I’ve posted in the past on the mystery of MBH confidence interval calculations, especially the mysterious MBH99 confidence intervals (another Caramilk secret). In our NAS panel presentation and perhaps before, I’d speculated that MBH98 confidence intervals, rotundly described in MBH98 as “self-consistently estimated”, were nothing other than twice the standard error of the (overfitted) calibration […]
Von Storch and Mann have both said that, in an MBH98-type reconstruction, it is impossible to allocate the impact of individual proxies. This is incorrect as we pointed out in MM05b. My posts on MBH98 Linear Algebra showed this more clearly (or at least in more detail). However, those posts only took the analysis back […]
It often feels like shoveling out a swamp in dealing with the misrepresentations of our stuff. Someone over at Tim Lambert has said that I “originated incorrect information” about Mann’s CENSORED directory: So my original point stands that McIntyre originated incorrect information such as the idea that the data in the ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MBH98/TREE/ITRDB/NOAMER/BACKTO_1400-CENSORED directory only has […]
This post got deleted in the server crash. I typically post up from written text, but usually do a final edit as I input onto the blog, so the present note will probably differ a little from what I posted up yesterday, but probably not materially. Mann did not present anything germane that had not […]
Obviously Climate Audit has captured a small part of the zeitgeist of the scientific world, especially in regards to the obvious failures of peer review to detect bad practice and scientific misconduct. It has been asked by some climate scientists why access to original data and full disclosure is so important, as if proper audit […]
Mann told the NAS panel: "I am not a statistician". No one on the panel contested that claim. A friend sent me Mann’s bio distributed as part of today’s Margolin Lecture at Middlebury College, which says that the focus of his research is "the application of statistical techniques to understanding climate variability and climate change […]
Another excellent post by David Stockwell here. Everyone having fun?
Climate Audit 
Why peer reviewed publication is not enough
Obviously Climate Audit has captured a small part of the zeitgeist of the scientific world, especially in regards to the obvious failures of peer review to detect bad practice and scientific misconduct. It has been asked by some climate scientists why access to original data and full disclosure is so important, as if proper audit […]