Phil Jones and the China Network: Part 2

Part 1 here. As a point of clarification, “station histories” in this post means the meta-data history i.e. locations and moves and are distinct from the “station data” in the form of the monthly averages.

In January 2007, the results of IPCC AR4 were announced. It re-iterated Jones et al 1990 as authority for the unimportance of UHI. The continued use of Jones et al 1990 by AR4 attracted my attention and, in Feb 2007, I re-examined Jones et al 1990 at CA, with my first discussion of the Chinese network here. See tag/china for posts related to this topic.

In the first paragraphs of that post, I set out a question that later became contentious (and which remains unanswered despite three “inquiries”): Continue reading

Phil Jones and the China Network: Part 1

Muir Russell told the Sci Tech Committee that the Muir Russell panel “fully investigated” the allegations about the Chinese network of Jones et al 1990. This was totally untrue. Not only did Muir Russell panel fail to “fully” investigate, as was the case on too many other issues, Muir Russell didn’t investigate at all.

In today’s post, I’m going to start a long backstory to this dispute – much longer than I anticipated when I started summarizing Muir Russell’s testimony at the committee. It will take about 4-5 posts in all (based on what I’ve written so far.) I found the narrative quite intriguing to reconstruct, though, at times, the affair seemed as though the characters from Burn After Reading (the Coen Brothers’ movie) had been transplanted into academia.

Here’s a quick synopsis. The overarching issue in the Chinese network controversy is whether the development of urban heat islands in the 20th century had a significant impact on land temperature indices such as CTUTEM and GISS. Jones et al 1990’s importance in this argument was its conclusion that the contribution of urbanization to 20th century trends was negligible (no more than ~0.05 deg from 1900-1990.) It was cited as authority for this claim in both IPCC TAR (2001) and AR4(2007), along with a couple of other articles by closely allied authors (Peterson, Parker). The Chinese network of Jones et al 1990 was one of the main props: Jones purported to demonstrate the unimportance of the urbanization contribution by showing that there was a negligible difference in temperature trends between urban and rural sites in China between 1954-1983.

Jones et al 1990 had bothered Warwick Hughes a long time ago. After its continued citation in AR4, I re-considered it at CA in February 2007, reporting apparent inconsistencies between quality control said to have been done by the authors of Jones et al 1990 and the non-existence of the station histories required for the quality control reported in contemporary technical documents. This led to my first climate FOI – successful by the way. By April 2007, I had satisfied myself that, whatever the actual contribution of urbanization to temperature trend, Jones’ analysis of the Chinese data was worthless and didn’t pursue the matter. However, as CA readers know, Doug Keenan did pursue the matter, arguing that that the incident rose to research “fraud”. (Such allegations were not made here, since as CA readers know, I don’t find “fraud” a useful way to frame issues in climate science and have blog policies against such allegations. ) The issue as framed by Keenan took on a life of its own.
Continue reading

UEA Policies and Statutes of Limitations

It is almost impossible to fully dissect the negligence of the Muir Russell inquiry in virtually every aspect of its duties. Muir Russell told the Parliamentary Committee that he didn’t ask Jones (or anyone else) about email deletions since that would in effect be asking them to confess to a crime. If their ‘rigour and honesty” was above question, as he declared, then surely he would have been able to ask them to re-assure him that they had not committed any crimes.

There’s another angle here that hasn’t been discussed though “anonym”, a commenter at Bishop Hill’s pointed out the issue. Prosecutions of an offence under the FOI Act are statute-barred because of a more-or-less unanticipated interaction between the FOI legislation and the statute of limitations for magistrates’ court offences. To avoid the statute bar, prosecution of the offence would have to be initiated within 6 months of the offence, whereas in this case the offence wasn’t discovered until more than 6 months had expired. Minutes of a meeting between the ICO and Muir Russell show that Muir Russell was asked to support a change in the law, but, needless to say, Muir Russell didn’t bother. Because of the statute bar, the ICO would be unable to prosecute and notified Muir Russell that they would not be able to investigate. Muir Russell seized on this information by not investigating either, despite an explicit request from the SciTech Committee that an investigation be carried out by one of the two bodies.

However, Muir Russell’s negligence in failing to investigate goes even further. Continue reading

Watch the Pea

At the hearings yesterday, after being stonewalled by Muir Russell about Muir Russell’s refusal to investigate Jones’ delete-all-email request, Stringer turned his attention to Acton, who claimed that he had carried out his own investigation, the results of which were on the UEA website. Here is a rough transcript:

Stringer – … Prof Acton, are you satisfied that these questions weren’t asked? That people in your university were sending out emails suggesting that emails be deleted and that it hasn’t been investigated.

Acton – It has been investigated. I’ve asked them and they’ve assured me that they’ve never knowingly deleted emails subject to [inaudible]

Stringer – Did you ask them under caution?

Acton – My relationship is rather different. It is part of my duty to address that kind of spirit and make sure that I drive it out and establish the fact. Can those emails be produced? Yes, they can. Did those might have deleted them say they deleted them? No, they say that they did not.

Stringer – and you’ve recorded those meeting with Prof Jones

Acton – – if you examine our website

The relevant location at the UEA website appears to be a July 26, 2010 statement by Jones as follows:

Phil Jones comments on questions concerning deletion of emails

Mon, 26 Jul 2010

“As I have said on a number of occasions I do delete emails from time to time – this is usually as part of a regular clear out but sometimes as I go along”.

“Most people seem to do the same to keep their email account manageable and because we are regularly reminded when storage space on our email system is nearly full”.

“There is also an environmental and economic cost to storing emails so it seems to me that it is not good practice just to keep everything”

“It would be very difficult to guess what might be asked for in future so I don’t go around deleting emails just because they might be asked for at some point.”

“I have previously confirmed that I have never knowingly deleted an email that was the subject of an active Freedom of Information request and neither have I deleted data”.

Watch the pea very carefully. Acton is on the thimble.

The emails in most controversy were the surreptitious 2006 emails between Eugene Wahl and Keith Briffa, described by Fred Pearce as a “subversion” of IPCC policies. In these emails, Eugene Wahl substituted his self-serving assessment of the impact of the MM2005 critique of MBH for the assessment that had been distributed to external reviewers in the Second Draft. Although Jones was often and perhaps even usually copied on Briffa emails, Jones wasn’t copied on these furtive emails between Wahl and Briffa.

Let’s look at the narrowest possible construction of Jones’ statement as it pertains to the delete-all-emails incident. At the time of Jones’ delete-all-emails request, it’s possible that the only copies of the furtive Wahl-Briffa exchange were held by Wahl and Briffa, both of whom were asked by Jones to delete the exchange.

Jones’ carefully crafted statement says only that he hadn’t personally deleted the Wahl-Briffa emails. It is silent on whether Briffa and/or Wahl acted on Jones’ request to delete the email record of their surreptitious IPCC correspondence.

Nor does the East Anglia statement explain Jones’ email to University officials that Briffa should (untruthfully) deny the existence of the Wahl-Briffa correspondence, an important part of this incident that Muir Russell didn’t investigate.

The University of East Anglia promised an “independent investigation” into the emails. Yesterday, Muir Russell confirmed what everyone knew – the he didn’t actually carry out an investigation. The only person who claimed to “investigate” was Acton – neither “independent” nor an “investigation”.

Trevor Davies on the “Oxburgh Eleven”

Stringer (at about 9.53) observed:

A lot of the papers that the controversy was about – the multiproxy papers – were not included.

Trevor Davies answered:

I will dispute that.

Trevor Davies then proceeded to make a lengthy statement that did not, in fact, contradict Stringer’s point that the multiproxy papers in the most controversy were not included in the Oxburgh Eleven. He also tried to argue that I, of all people, had failed to adequately draw the multiproxy papers to the attention of the SciTech Committee. As so often with the Team and their apologists, you have to watch the pea under the thimble. Continue reading

Did Jones Delete Emails?

It turns out that Muir Russell didn’t bother asking, since that would have exposed Jones to potential liability. Continue reading

Muir Russell and The Peer Review Three

We’ve all had an interesting time trying to get a straight answer as to the eleven publications said by Oxburgh to have been selected on the advice of the Royal Society. After much evasion, Trevor Davies has admitted that he selected them, using the references in the CRU submission to the SciTech Committee as a basis. (More on this in another post.)

An equally interesting question asked at the Committee – who chose the three peer review incidents considered by Muir Russell. The only cases considered by Muir Russell were: the dispute over Soon and Baliunas at Climate Research in 2003; an incident involving Sonja Boehmer-Christensen in late 2009 and the Cook-Briffa incident. (They also considered Michaels and McKitrick 2004 in their IPCC section.) Muir Russell was asked – why these three? Continue reading

Josh 30: Muir Russell

See Josh.

Link to Muir Russell at SciTech

9.20 am UK time. http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=6785 Beddington is also appearing.

Too early for me. I guess that I’ll see the replay.

Update:
Report webpage

Muir Russell evidence

Oxburgh evidence

Report

Additional evidence

An “Objective Arbiter” CRU-Style

Muir Russell reported Briffa’s claim that “Wahl was asked for comment on text as a knowledgeable and objective arbiter”. The indolent Muir Russell did not comment on whether Briffa’s description of Wahl as “objective” was plausible.

In a Climategate letter of July 27, 2006, Wahl wrote to Briffa (733. 1155402164.txt):

I’ve also been a lot involved with helping to get a person from the Pew Center for Global Climate Change ready to testify in front of the House Energy and Environment Committee tomorrow. That is why I couldn’t get this done and sent to you earlier today. Send Mike Mann and Jay Gulledge (Pew Center) all good thoughts for strength and clarity… Peace, Gene

An “objective arbiter” CRU-style.