Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

Thoughts on Hansen et al 1988

Update (Jul 28, 2008): On Jan 18, 2008, two days after this article was posted, RSS issued a revised version of their data set. The graphics below are based on RSS versions as of Jan 16, 2008, the date of this article, and, contrary to some allegations on the internet, I did not “erroneously” use […]

Pielke Jr on IPCC Predictions

Excellent post by Pielke Jr here

From Lacis et al 1981 to Archer Modtran

In several recent posts, we’ve been reviewing the provenance of the radiative forcing estimate of about 4 wm-2 and the logarithmic form for estimating climate response to increased CO2 levels. This has led on the one hand to several primary references, including Lacis et al 1981 and, on the other hand, to references to realclimate […]

Gore Scientific "Adviser" says that he has no "responsibility" for AIT errors

In earlier posts, we observed that Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth claimed that “Dr Thompson’s thermometer” confirmed Michael Mann’s hockey stick, but, when analysed, what Gore described as “Dr Thompson’s thermometer” merely proved to be Michael Mann’s hockey stick mis-identified. No wonder it resembled Mann’s hockey stick – or, to use the phrase more common […]

Tropical and Arctic Tropopause

Hans Erren observes: one other serious complication exists in the real world which we shouldn’t overlook. There are two stable tropopause heights observed in the atmosphere: Tropical tropopause Arctic tropopause At their boundaries (mid lattitude) the most intersting weather occurs, where most people live and where climate change affects the most people. What will happen […]

More on Functional Forms: Wigley 1987

Over the last week or so, I’ve reported on my efforts to locate the provenance of the functional forms for the relationship between levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and temperature. Luboš has also chipped in on the topic from a different perspective proposing a derivation of a log formula from first principles. We’ve […]

The IPCC “Simplified Expressions”

Reader DAV raised the following interesting question: The strange thing about 6..3.5 Simplified Equations that gets me is why should CO2, CH4 and N2O have different equational forms? And what would be the physical basis for raising something to the 0.75 or 1.52 power? The whole thing looks ad hoc as if someone was insistently […]

More Blog Management Matters

John A has briefly come out of retirement and set up a CA bulletin board, see here for prototype – which I’m hoping will resolve some blog operating issues. The Bulletin Board presently has 4 main forums and provides for threads within a forum like other boards. I can see a couple of advantages to […]

Energy Balance at the Tropopause

The IPCC defines radiative forcing at the tropopause. However, nowhere do they provide a diagram showing energy balances above the tropopause and below the tropopause – something that seems like one of the first things to do. Instead, they show the Kiehl and Trenberth cartoon which treats the atmosphere as a whole without distinguishing balances […]

IPCC Review Editor Comments

David Holland has written in raising an excellent point about the failure of IPCC WG1 to release the Review Editor comments. In our examination of specific issues e.g. the Briffa truncation, the handling of trends, etc., the Author Responses (online through an earlier CA initiative) show that the IPCC authors often made unconvincing and tendentious […]