Category Archives: Modeling

OK, What Caused the Problem?

Are you like me and a little puzzled as to exactly how the GHCN-GISS problem happened? GISS blamed their supplier (NOAA GHCN). Unfortunately NOAA’s been stone silent on the matter. I checked the Russian data at meteo.ru and there was nothing wrong with it. Nor is there anything wrong at GHCN-Daily for stations reporting there. […]

Should the Credibility Crunch Move to NOAA?

Some RC commenters are bemoaning the criticism that GISS is currently weathering. For example, Tamino: Although the error originated NOT with GISS but before numbers even got through their door, I’ve heard no cries for heads to roll at NOAA or NWS — just vicious attacks on GISS. As so often, Tamino simply makes stories […]

Memo to Gavin Schmidt

From: He Whose Name You are Not Allowed to Utter Gavin, you said: [Response: There are still (at least) four stations that have Oct data in place of september data but that didn’t report september data (Kirensk, Irkutsk, Bratsk, Erbogacen). I expect that the SEP=OCT check that NOAA did, just didn’t catch these. Still, this […]

Watch the Ball

NASA spokesman Gavin Schmidt announced at realclimate that Hansen et al had fixed the Russian (and elsewhere data), following corrections to the data made by their supplier (NOAA GHCN.) Even though errors of over 10 deg C had occurred over the world’s largest land mass, it only reduced GISS October temperature by 0.21 deg C […]

Gavin Schmidt: "The processing algorithm worked fine."

In the last few days, NASA has been forced to withdraw erroneous October temperature data. The NASA GISS site is down, but NASA spokesman Gavin Schmidt said at their blog outlet that “The processing algorithm worked fine.” Schmidt blamed the failure on defects in a product from a NASA supplier and expressed irritation that NASA […]

Santer Refuses Data Request

On Oct 20, 2008, I sent Santer the following request: Dear Dr Santer, Could you please provide me either with the monthly model data (49 series) used for statistical analysis in Santer et al 2008 or a link to a URL. I understand that your version has been collated from PCMDI ; my interest is […]

This Gets Even More Amusing

Can anyone on the Team actually hit a target? A couple of days ago, I reported that Santer’s own method yielded failed t-tests on UAH when data up to 2008 (or even 2007) was used. I also reported that their SI (carried out in 2008) included a sensitivity test on their H1 hypothesis up to […]

The Santer "S.D."

Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]

Does the Endpoint of Santer H2 "Matter"?

Yes. Perhaps the first thing that I noticed about this article was the endpoint for analysis of 1999 – this seemed very odd. I mentioned that a Santer coauthor wrote to me, saying that the endpoint didn’t matter relative to the Douglass endpoint of 2004. That turns out to be true, but why would anyone […]

Lucia on Santer

Excellent post here. Please comment at Lucia’s.