Schmidt’s “Conspiracy Theory”

Schmidt’s recent post on Yamal advocated the following “conspiracy theory”:

McIntyre got the erroneous idea that studies were being done, but were being suppressed if they showed something ‘inconvenient’. This is of course a classic conspiracy theory and one that can’t be easily disproved. Accusation: you did something and then hid it. Response: No I didn’t, take a look. Accusation: You just hid it somewhere else.

One aspect of Schmidt’s response is beyond laughable. I agree that the best way of disarming suspicion is to show data: “take a look”, as Schmidt says. However, if Schmidt thinks that the conduct of the scientists involved in the various data refusals, obstructions and FOI refusals constitutes “take a look”, then he’s seriously in tin foil country. Comical Gav indeed.

Although I find it hard to believe that Schmidt is unfamiliar with the past incidents that gave rise to suspicion that adverse results and data have been withheld or not reported, I’ll review a couple of important ones. These do not, in any sense, constitute an inventory of incidents. They are ones that are either familiar in part to CA readers or which illustrate an important aspect of the problem.

Read More »


New Data from Hantemirov

Yesterday, I received updated Yamal data (to 2005) from Rashit Hantemirov, together with a cordial cover note. As CA and other readers know, Hantemirov had also promptly sent me data for Hantemirov and Shiyatov 2002. There are 120 cores in the data set, which comes up to 2005. I’ve calculated a chronology from this information – see below. Read More »

Schmidt on FOI

In yesterday’s post (as noted), I only responded to one aspect of Schmidt’s Yamal article, as it contains numerous extraneous spitballs, each of which takes time to respond to.

In yesterday’s post, I focused on points of agreement or points where agreement ought to be possible. In a subsequent RC comment, Schmidt complained that I had failed to respond to his “main point”, which now appears to be his ruminations on the UK Freedom of Information Act. Read More »

Stocker’s Earmark: An Update

Interesting news at Bishop Hill. A UK minister informed David Holland’s MP that the extra secrecy measures at IPCC, arising from the instigation of Phil Jones and persistence of Thomas Stocker, arose unintentionally and as a “drafting error”. Read More »

Schmidt’s Rant on Yamal

Two days ago, NASA blogger Gavin Schmidt posted an extended rant against me at Real Climate, a rant directed in part at my recent post on Yamal.

I’ve now looked through his post carefully and, beneath Schmidt’s fulminations, did not find any rebuttal to any points actually made in my post, as I’ll discuss in detail below. Much of Schmidt’s post fulminates against my criticism of inadequate disclosure of adverse results. This is a large topic in itself that provides a context to the Yamal controversy, but the exposition of this context is lengthy and, in my opinion, the Yamal issues are sufficiently discrete that they can be considered on their own, as I shall do in this post. Read More »

Steig’s “Hockey Stick”

I’m writing a response to Gavin Schmidt’s rant about Yamal, which I should finish by tomorrow. Schmidt’s rant does not refute anything in my Yamal post. Indeed, Schmidt barely touches on the actual content of my post. Most of his post has nothing to do with Yamal.

In the present post, I’ll deal with the following spitball: Read More »

“Misconceived”

In the FOI request under appeal, one of the two outstanding issues is my request for a copy of the Wahl and Ammann version, as submitted to Lead Author Briffa and used in the AR4 First Draft. East Anglia has argued that Briffa received the article under conditions of ordinary academic confidentiality. My counter-argument is that he received them in his capacity as an IPCC Lead Author. And that, in any event, he certainly didn’t treat the article as “confidential” since he cited it in the IPCC First Draft. Under IPCC policies, IPCC Lead Authors were required to place unpublished articles in an online archive available for reviewers. The lugubrious history of Wahl and Ammann has attracted attention in the community critical of the Team, see e.g. Bishop Hill’s excellent Caspar and the Jesus Paper.

If I were in East Anglia’s shoes, I wouldn’t have wasted two seconds fighting this FOI request. I’d have told Wahl and Ammann that we didn’t think that we received the article on a “confidential” basis since it was expected to be used in IPCC, that we had had enough headaches and didn’t want to have one more fight, and therefore we expected them to acquiesce in our decision. If I were the UEA administration, I’d have asked Jones and Briffa to agree with this decision and get Wahl and Ammann to cooperate. That’s what any sane person in the private sector would have done.

Instead, East Anglia has contested every step of the FOI, which has now reached the Tribunal.

As with all legal proceedings, they take on a life of their own after a while and so it is with this case. In today’s post, I’ll discuss an interesting fact-law issue arising out of East Anglia’s submission to the Tribunal on May 9. Read More »

UEA Submission to Tribunal on Wahl FOI

UEA made lengthy submission to Information Tribunal, re-iterating their claim that attachments to the Wahl emails have been destroyed.

The present appeal arises in part from Acton telling to the Parliamentary Committee that they did not inquire deeply into Jones’ deletion of email request because the “emails do exist”:

Q84 Graham Stringer: Thank you. Sir Muir, on page 92 of your report you say, and I paraphrase, that there is no attempt to delete e-mails after there had been a request made, whereas in actual fact the e-mail of 27 May from Jones actually asked for deletion of e-mails, didn’t it?

Sir Muir Russell: It requested them. I think we said that there was incitement to delete. You have quoted half the sentence. The first bit says: “There seemed clear incitement to delete but we had seen no evidence of any attempt to delete in respect of a request already made.” That is quite a tricky area because they do still exist, apart from anything else, but the question that I think you’re getting at is whether we sought to chase that particular question about deletion of requested e-mails through our review.

On this point, UEA made the following submission:

In 18-19 GoA, Mr Mclntyre makes allegations to the effect that evidence given by UEA’s Vice-Chancellor, Professor Acton, to the STC as part of its inquiry into climategate was untrue. UEA does not accept that these allegations are well-founded. However, the doctrine of Parliamentary privilege in any event means that these are not allegations which can or should be countenanced by the Tribunal.

Lots of interesting information and interpretation. See here.

Yamal FOI Sheds New Light on Flawed Data

Phil Jones’ first instinct on learning about Climategate was that it was linked to the Yamal controversy that was in the air in the weeks leading up to Climategate. I had speculated that CRU must have done calculations for Yamal along the lines of the regional chronology for Taimyr published in Briffa et al 2008. CRU was offended and issued sweeping denials, but my surmise was confirmed by an email in the Climategate dossier. Unfortunately neither Muir Russell nor Oxburgh investigated the circumstances of the withheld regional chronology, despite my submission drawing attention to this battleground issue.

I subsequently submitted an FOI request for the Yamal-Urals regional chronology and a simple list of sites used in the regional chronology. Both requests were refused by the University of East Anglia. I appealed to the Information Commissioner (ICO).

A week ago, the Information Commissioner notified the University of East Anglia that he would be ruling against them on my longstanding FOI request for the list of sites used in the Yamal-Urals regional chronology referred to in a 2006 Climategate email. East Anglia accordingly sent me a list of the 17 sites used in the Yamal-Urals regional chronology (see here). A decision on the chronology itself is pending. In the absence of the chronology itself, I’ve done an RCS calculation, the results of which do not yield a Hockey Stick.

In today’s post, I’ll also show that important past statements and evidence to Muir Russell by CRU on the topic have been either untruthful or deceptive.

Read More »

McKitrick Letter to Heartland

I wrote this to Joe Bast this afternoon. I am pleased to report that he replied promptly and agreed to take the billboard down.

dear Joe:

I just saw the billboards that Heartland is using to advertise the 7th ICCC:

http://climateconference.heartland.org/our-billboards/

I am absolutely dismayed. This kind of fallacious, juvenile and inflammatory rhetoric does nothing to enhance your reputation, hands your opponents a huge stick to beat you with, and sullies the reputation of the speakers you had recruited. Any public sympathy you had built up as a result of the Gleick fiasco will be lost–and more besides–as a result of such a campaign. I urge you to withdraw it at once.

Strike the tone in your advertisements that you want people to use when talking about you. The fact that you need a lengthy webpage to explain the thinking behind the billboards proves that your messaging failed. Nobody is going to read your explanation anyway. All they will take away is the message on the signs themselves, and it’s a truly objectionable message.

You cannot simultaneously say that you want to promote a debate while equating the other side to terrorists and mass murderers. Once you have done such a thing you have lost the moral high ground and you can never again object if someone uses that kind of rhetoric on you.

I have just been cc’d on an email from someone who wrote to both my dean and university president, expressing his outrage that a UofG professor is party to such billboards. Had this simply been someone objecting to my speaking at Heartland I could easily have (and would have) defended myself. But notwithstanding that I have tenure and have the full right to speak wherever I want, the fact is that I have to agree with the person — I’m appalled.

I appreciate what Heartland does, and I know this year has been frustrating for you, and your staff may feel like venting. But I can’t be associated with those billboards. I had really been looking forward to participating in this year’s conference, but unless the billboard campaign is immediately suspended I have to cancel my participation.

Yours truly
Ross McKitrick

Update: Donna Laframboise, a fellow Torontonian, withdrew from the conference today. I agree with her remarks here.

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