Ian Jolliffe, a noted principal components authority, has posted a comment at Tamino’s, which repudiates Tamino’s (and Mann’s) citation of Jolliffe as a supposed authority for Mannian PCA. He wrote to me separately, notifying me of the posting and authorizing me to cross-post his comment and stating that we had correctly understood and described his […]
I’ve made histograms of reported proxy correlations for 1850-1995, as reported in r1209.xls (which contains results for all proxies, unlike SI SD1.xls which withholds results below a benchmark.) The breaks are in 0.1 intervals. On the left is the histogram before screening; on the right, a histogram of the 484 proxies after screening. […]
Phil B writes: My day job does include parameter and state estimation using Least Squares and Kalman filtering. I have replicated several of the non-ice borehole temperature reconstructions and I’ll “share” my observations. The inversion problem boils down to finding the solution to the inconsistent set of linear equations Ax~b, where A is a skinny […]
OK, I’m starting to get the feel of the new proxy network and have some ideas of what the new Mannomatic is doing. The manouevres have a lot of similarities to the moves in MBH98 and I think that a few main components can be singled out: 1. Once again, as in MBH98-99, the “proxies”, […]
Yesterday Mann archived a new version of his data, a version supposedly without any infilling. Gavin Schmidt is pretending that this was there all along and demanding an apology from one of his readers, who had the temerity to question Schmidt. I’ve taken a quick look at the new (Sept 4, 2008) version of Mann’s […]
Here are 5 graphics which show all the Mann 2008 proxies in a consistent format, highlighting two periods 950-1100 and 1850-1980. My software only permits 300 gif images per gif-movie, so 5 parts. The graphics show nicely how few series actually have low-freq variability and how few series are really contributing to any HS-ness. The […]
Larry Huldén writes: The Finnish lake sediments can not be used for temperature interpretations in the 18th to 20th century unless you know exactly the history of the regional lake environment conditions. We have 180,000 lakes in Finland. It is very easy to cherry pick among them and say that it is a random sample. […]
I’m spending a little extra time examining the “new” Mann 2008 MWP non-dendro “proxies”. There are 4 series from varved lake sediments in Punta Laguna, Mexico: two dO18 and two C13 series, each for a different gastropod species. Original data is archived at WDCP here. I compared this data to Mann’s versions and noticed some […]
Once again, Mann has claimed that he can obtain a “reliable long-term record” without tree ring data, a claim that, as previously noted, is eerily reminiscent of a similar untrue claim made 10 years ago. Ten years ago, we could not simply eliminate all the tree-ring data from our network because we did not have […]
UC writes in that there’s another Mannian problem: And GRL08 ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/MannGRL08.pdf ) is the prologue. Tried this new smoother ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/smoothing08/lowpassadaptive.m ) with HadCRUT monthly and f=0.0104, [smoothedbest,w0,w1,w2,msebest] = lowpassadaptive(HadM, 0.0104); got this figure, But the weights are [w0 w1 w2] ans = 0.4100 0 0.5500 Surprisingly, this does not agree with the text, […]
Climate Audit 