Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

Ice Ages #2

May 1, 2008 – 8:58 AM
Posted in General | Comments (132)

Unthreaded #34

May 1, 2008 – 8:57 AM
Posted in General, Unthreaded | Comments (543)

Svalgaard #6

May 1, 2008 – 8:55 AM
Posted in General | Comments (672)

Tropical Troposphere

Apr 26, 2008 – 12:16 PM

Last year, Ross McKitrick proposed the ironic idea of a “T3 Tax” in which carbon tax levels were related to observed temperature increases in the tropical troposphere. Temperature increases in the tropical troposphere are, as I understand it, a distinctive “fingerprint” for carbon dioxide forcing. Apparent discrepancies between a lack of warming in satellite data […]

Posted in General | Comments (483)

Anthony Watts at NCDC

Apr 26, 2008 – 7:51 AM

Anthony has two interesting reports on his NCDC visit. Take a look.

Posted in General | Comments (12)

MBH99 and Proxy Calibration

Apr 23, 2008 – 12:03 PM

UC and Hu McCulloch have been carrying on a very illuminating discussion of statistical issues relating to calibration , with UC, in particular, drawing attention to the approach of Brown (1982) towards establishing confidence intervals in calibration problems. In order to apply statistical theory of regression , you have to regress the effect Y against […]

Posted in MBH98 | Tagged , , , | Comments (54)

Wilson in Kyrgyzstan

Apr 23, 2008 – 6:54 AM

Wilson et al 2007 (previously discussed here) considers a Kyrgyzstan series that has numerous issues – the usual provenance problems unfortunately occur once again. But over and above that, it uses multiple inverse regression, a procedure used all too casually by dendros. In this case, the procedure flips over one of the ring width series […]

Posted in General | Tagged , | Comments (10)

Rob Wilson and the Yamal Divergence

Apr 21, 2008 – 9:19 AM

The archived information for Wilson et al 2007 contains interesting new information on an unpublished West Siberian series (Putorama, 70 31 N, 92 57E). In this case, I was actually able to obtain a better correlation to gridcell temperature than the one reported by Rob by using a gridcell closer to the actual location. This […]

Posted in Briffa, D'Arrigo 2006, Yamal and Urals | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments (27)

"Correlates well (r = 0.70) with gridded June–July temperatures"

Apr 20, 2008 – 8:50 PM

I’ve been re-visiting some proxy data; I noted last summer that Rob Wilson had archived a considerable amount of B.C. data in Aug 2007 and noticed that he subsequently archived the data versions as used in Wilson et al 2007 at NCDC here in Sept 2007. (Not all of Rob’s data is archived as he […]

Posted in Jacoby, Proxies | Tagged , , | Comments (49)

The RE Benchmark of 0

Apr 17, 2008 – 1:02 PM

In MM2005a,b,c, we observed that the RE statistic had no theoretical distribution. We noted that MBH had purported to establish a benchmark by simulations using AR1 red noise series with AR1=0.2, yielding a RE benchmark of 0. We originally observed that high RE statistics could be obtained from PC operations on red noise in MM2005a […]

Posted in Wahl and Ammann | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments (44)