Author Archives: Steve McIntyre

Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes: The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the atmosphere (motions with a horizontal length scale of 1000 km and time scale of […]

Disappearing the MWP at Icefields, Alberta

In today’s post, I’m going to critically examine another widely used tree ring chronology: the Icefields (Alberta) MXD RCS chronology of Luckman and Wilson (2005 pdf), used most recently in Wilson et al 2016. I’ll show that the RCS technique used in the LW2005 MXD chronology eliminated high medieval values as a tautology of their method, not […]

New Light on Gulf of Alaska

Last week, I posted on the effect of ex post site selection on the Gulf of Alaska tree ring chronology used in Wilson et al 2016 (from Wiles et al 2014).  An earlier incarnation of this chronology (in D’Arrigo et al 2016) had had a severe divergence problem, a problem that Wiles et al had purported to […]

A Return to Polar Urals: Wilson et al 2016

Wilson et al 2016, like D’Arrigo et al 2006, includes a ‘Polar Urals’ chronology as one of its components.  Tree ring chronologies from Polar Urals and Yamal have long been a contentious issue at Climate Audit, dating back to the earliest days (see tags Yamal, Polar Urals). Whereas the D’Arrigo et al 2006 version had one […]

Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska

The bias arising from ex post selection of sites for regional tree ring chronologies has been a long standing issue at Climate Audit, especially in connection with Briffa’s chronologies for Yamal and Polar Urals (see tag.)  I discussed it most recently in connection with the Central Northwest Territories (CNWT) regional chronology of D’Arrigo et al […]

Cherry-Picking by D’Arrigo

One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of data, of which ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of sites/data in “regional [treering] chronologies” is one important family.  This was the issue in the original Yamal controversy, in response to which Briffa stated that they “would never select or manipulate […]

Bob Carter

I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( here here).   He was one of the few people in this field that I regarded as a friend.  He was only a few years older than me and we got along well personally. I will not attempt to comment on […]

Update of Model-Observation Comparisons

The strong El Nino has obviously caused great excitement in the warmist community.  It should also cause any honest skeptic/lukewarmer to re-examine whether observations remain inconsistent with models. In today’s post, I’ll show two comparisons: 1) CMIP5 models (TAS) vs HadCRUT4; 2) CMIP5 models (TLT) vs RSS (UAH is only negligibly different).  For this post, […]

COP21 Emission Projections

In the wake of COP21, I thought that it would be interesting to compare the respective pathways of China and the U.S (and others) based on official data. I still plan to post on this topic, but obtaining official data on the pathways proved much more difficult than I anticipated.  Leading into the COP21 conference […]

Balascio et al and the Baffin Island Inconsistency

There was some publicity this week on a paper by Young et al (Science Advances, 2015), which, according to Gifford Miller , whose work has been frequently discussed at CA (see  tag), had supposedly put the “coup de grace on the Medieval Warm Period”, that had been so long wished for by the Team.   […]